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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-17.5 (+21.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-0.5 (+12)  
 
  Support   2.950%  
 
  Resistance   2.797%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, March 22, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.807% after closing at 2.884% during the prior session.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC raised short-term interest rates yesterday by 25 basis points as they elevated the range of the Fed Funds Target Rate to 1.50%-1.75%.  The Fed also released their Summary of Economic Projections yesterday, thereby further signaling to the market their view on economic growth, inflation, and unemployment levels that might impact interest rates in the future.

On the economic calendar today, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 17 came in at 229K, versus consensus of 225K and up from prior mark of 226K. Also, Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended March 10 dropped to 1828K from 1885K prior revised, also beating expectations of 1870K. Further, preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI for March came in at 55.70, slightly exceeding expectations of 55.50 and prior mark of 55.30; while preliminary Markit Services PMI for March came in at 54.10, versus survey of 56.00 and down from prior 55.90. Finally, the month-over-month FHFA House Price Index for January rose 0.80%, beating estimates of 0.40% and up from prior 0.40% revised; while Bloomberg Economic Expectations for March reflected a print of 56.00 from 54.50 prior. 

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 7.7 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/19 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  03/20 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 16 Mar - -1.10% 0.90% -  
                   
  03/21  Existing Home Sales 07:00 Feb 5.40m 5.54m 5.38m -  
                   
  03/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 0.40% 3.00% -3.20% -  
                   
  03/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 21 Mar  1.75% 1.75% 1.50% -  
                   
  03/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 21 Mar  1.50% 1.50% 1.25% -  
                   
  03/22 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 17 Mar  225k 229k 226k -  
                   
  03/22 Continuing Claims 05:30 10 Mar  1870k 1828k 1879k 1885k  
                   
  03/22 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jan 0.40% 0.80% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  03/22 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 18 Mar - 56.80 56.20 -  
                   
  03/22 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar P 55.50 55.70 55.30 -  
                   
  03/22 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar P 56.00 54.10 55.90 -  
                   
  03/22 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar P - 54.30 55.80 -  
                   
  03/22 Leading Index 07:00 Feb 0.50% 0.60% 1.00% 0.80%  
                   
  03/22 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Mar 17.00 17.00 17.00 -  
                   
  03/23 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Feb P 1.60% - -3.60% -  
                   
  03/23 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Feb P 0.50% - -0.30% -  
                   
  03/23 New Home Sales 07:00 Feb 620k - 593k -  
                   
  03/23 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 4.60% - -7.80% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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