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Market Commentary


 

 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   105-29 (-1-03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-00 (+1-03.5)  
 
  Support   2.594%  
 
  Resistance   0.336%  
 
 
 
 
  Tuesday, March 24, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Climb as Package Deal Gets Closer

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.8387, 5.24 bps increased from prior closing of 0.7863.

US stock index futures rallied along with Asian equities, hitting their upper trading curbs, as optimism around a coronavirus rescue bill started building. House Speaker Pelosi unveiled a $2.5 trillion spending bill which includes measures to support homeowners, renters, and student borrowers after the Senate failed to agree on a bill yesterday. The dollar retreated after a 10-day rally, its steepest appreciation since the financial crisis and longest winning streak since 2012, and Treasuries slipped. This tentative sign of reduced stressed and gain in risk assets came after unprecedented move by the Fed on unlimited buying of bonds and as hopes an agreement on a stimulus bill was close. Elsewhere, WTI crude also advanced, trading above $24 a barrel this morning.

Markit US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.20 from prior of 50.70 but came in above consensus of 43.50. However, the Services PMI came in below both consensus of 42.00 and prior reading of 49.40 at 39.10. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort fell to 59.70 from 63.00 prior. Housing Market, on the other hand, continued to display demand as New Home Sales in February recorded 765k vs. 800k revised prior and 750k consensus. Lastly, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in March climbed to 2 from prior of -2 vs. -13 consensus. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $26 billion of 52-week bills and $40 billion of 2-year notes.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 5.24 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Feb -0.35 0.16 -0.25 -0.33  
                   
  03/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar P 43.50 49.20 50.70 -  
                   
  03/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar P 42.00 39.10 49.40 -  
                   
  03/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar P - 40.50 49.60 -  
                   
  03/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar -13 2 -2 -  
                   
  03/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Mar - - -8.40% -  
                   
  03/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Feb P -1.00% - -0.20% -  
                   
  03/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Feb P -0.40% - 0.80% -  
                   
  03/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jan 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  03/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Feb P -0.20% - -0.40% -  
                   
  03/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.10% - 2.10% -  
                   
  03/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 1.30% - 1.30% -  
                   
  03/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.20% - 1.20% -  
                   
  03/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Mar 1400k - 281k -  
                   
  03/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Mar 1782k - 1701k -  
                   
  03/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Mar - - 63.00 -  
                   
  03/27 PCE Core Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/27 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  03/27 Personal Spending 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  03/27 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/27 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 89.50 - 95.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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