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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-21 (+0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-12 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.418%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, March 25, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Edge Lower Due to Global Growth Concerns
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rebounding across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.4266, 1.24 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.4390.

US stock futures slightly edged lower this morning as investors remained anxious on the global economy concerns. Last Friday, the 3-month Treasury bill yield topped the 10-Year Treasury note yield, inverting the yield curve for the first time in more than a decade, of which many consider to be a predictor of economic recession. With confidence in health of global economy shaking, a potential breakthrough in the trade talks is now more emphasized to provide support. Investors also digested news from Sunday that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation did not find sufficient evidence that President Trump colluded with Russia in the 2016 presidential campaign. However, as the special counsel did not exonerate the President, House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler said that Attorney General will be called to testify before the House Judiciary Committee in the near future. Treasuries remained steady and WTI crude advanced this morning.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in February topped estimated of -0.38 at -0.29, a slight decline from revised prior of -0.25. 38 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions while 47 were negative. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity in March came in lower at 8.30 vs. 8.90 consensus and 13.10 prior. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $48 Billion of 3-month bills and $39 Billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.24 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Feb -0.38 -0.29 -0.43 -0.25  
                   
  03/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Mar 8.90 8.30 13.10 -  
                   
  03/26 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1210k - 1230k -  
                   
  03/26 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -1.60% - 18.60% -  
                   
  03/26 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1305k - 1345k 1317k  
                   
  03/26 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -0.90% - 1.40% -0.70%  
                   
  03/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jan 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  03/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.30% - 0.19% -  
                   
  03/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 3.80% - 4.18% -  
                   
  03/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar 10.00 - 16.00 -  
                   
  03/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Mar - - 1.60% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.30% - 2.60% -  
                   
  03/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 2.60% - 2.80% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 1.80% - 1.80% -  
                   
  03/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Mar 220k - 221k -  
                   
  03/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Mar 1778k - 1750k -  
                   
  03/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Mar - - 61.50 -  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb -0.30% - 4.60% -  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Feb -3.00% - -3.20% -  
                   
  03/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Mar 0.00 - 1.00 -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.30% - -0.10% -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Jan 0.30% - -0.50% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jan 1.40% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jan 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  03/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 97.80 - 97.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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