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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-21.5 (-08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-13 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.393%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Climb as Stocks Advance
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries slipping across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.4318, 3.35 bps increased from prior closing of 2.3983.

Although the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill yield and the 10-Year Treasury note yield remained negative, creating an inverted yield curve, investors’ concerns over the potential economic recession started assuaging. US equity index futures climbed this morning with Treasuries inching lower. On Brexit front, the UK Parliament seized control of the Brexit process last night from Prime Minister May and they will hold a series of indicative votes on alternative strategies which will include a second referendum, leaving the EU without a deal, and even canceling Brexit altogether. Although these will only be indicative, Prime Minister May may be pressured to follow a clear majority decision as time is running out. Elsewhere, WTI crude advanced above $60 a barrel and gold retreated for the first time in three days this morning.

Housing Starts continued to lag in February as it printed 1162k vs. 1273k revised prior and 1210k consensus. Building Permits also fell to 1296k from 1317k revised prior and 1305k consensus. FHFA House Price Index in January increased 0.60% from 0.30% prior vs. 0.40% estimate. However, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price increased only 0.11% in January, short of both 0.17% revised prior and 0.30% consensus. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in March came in line with consensus of 10.00 and Conference Board Consumer Confidence index in March fell to 124.10 from 131.40 prior vs. 132.50 consensus. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $26 billion of 52-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT) and $40 billion of 2-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.35 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Feb -0.38 -0.29 -0.43 -0.25  
                   
  03/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Mar 8.90 8.30 13.10 -  
                   
  03/26 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1210k 1162k 1230k 1273k  
                   
  03/26 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -1.60% -8.70% 18.60% 11.70%  
                   
  03/26 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1305k 1296k 1345k 1317k  
                   
  03/26 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -0.90% -1.60% 1.40% -0.70%  
                   
  03/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jan 0.40% 0.60% 0.30% -  
                   
  03/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.30% 0.11% 0.19% 0.17%  
                   
  03/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 3.80% 3.58% 4.18% 4.14%  
                   
  03/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar 10.00 10.00 16.00 -  
                   
  03/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Mar - - 1.60% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.30% - 2.60% -  
                   
  03/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 2.60% - 2.80% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 1.80% - 1.80% -  
                   
  03/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Mar 220k - 221k -  
                   
  03/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Mar 1778k - 1750k -  
                   
  03/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Mar - - 61.50 -  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb -0.30% - 4.60% -  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Feb -3.00% - -3.20% -  
                   
  03/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Mar 0.00 - 1.00 -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.30% - -0.10% -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Jan 0.30% - -0.50% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jan 1.40% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jan 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  03/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 97.80 - 97.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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