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Market Commentary


 
 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   106-14 (+15)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-07.5 (+06.5)  
 
  Support   2.594%  
 
  Resistance   0.336%  
 
 
 
 
  Thursday, March 26, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Decline after Senate Approved a Rescue Bill

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.8080, 5.93 bps decreased from prior closing of 0.8673.

Stocks rose as investors speculated that the $2 trillion rescue package unanimously approved by the Senate yesterday would soon be passed by the House as well. Stocks are heading for its first three-day rally since February and the dollar fell for a third day. Treasuries also gained and WTI crude edged lower, trading below $24 a barrel this morning. On the pandemic front, the total confirmed cases surpassed 490,000 globally and the US confirmed over 69,000 cases. Meanwhile, the WHO Director-General sent an unusually blunt message for governments to stop wasting time in the fight against the coronavirus and that the time to act was actually more than one or two months ago as opposed to President Trump’s recent statement where he downplayed the impact and the US economy could reopen by Easter.

The magnitude of the economic fallout started to display when the US government reported an unprecedented surge in Initial Jobless Claims. A total of 3,283k people filed for unemployment benefits, topping the previous highs of 665k in 2009 and 695k in 1982. Continuing Claims also edged higher to 1,803k from revised prior of 1,702k vs. 1,791k consensus. Wholesale Inventories came in unchanged from revised prior of -0.50% vs. -0.20% consensus and the fourth quarter GDP also remained unchanged at 2.10%. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $32 billion of 7-year notes.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 5.93 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Feb -0.35 0.16 -0.25 -0.33  
                   
  03/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar P 43.50 49.20 50.70 -  
                   
  03/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar P 42.00 39.10 49.40 -  
                   
  03/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar P - 40.50 49.60 -  
                   
  03/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar -13 2 -2 -  
                   
  03/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Mar - -29.40% -8.40% -  
                   
  03/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Feb P -0.90% 1.20% -0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  03/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Feb P -0.40% -0.60% 0.80% 0.60%  
                   
  03/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jan 0.40% 0.30% 0.60% 0.70%  
                   
  03/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Feb P -0.20% -0.50% -0.40% -0.50%  
                   
  03/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% -  
                   
  03/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  03/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% -  
                   
  03/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.20% 1.30% 1.20% -  
                   
  03/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Mar 1700k 3283k 281k 282k  
                   
  03/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Mar 1791k 1803k 1701k 1702k  
                   
  03/27 PCE Core Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/27 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  03/27 Personal Spending 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  03/27 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/27 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 90.00 - 95.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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