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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-29 (+06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-04.5 (+04)  
 
  Support   2.950%  
 
  Resistance   2.746%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, March 29, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.767% after closing at 2.782% prior.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week of March 24th which fell 12k to 215k from a downwardly revised 227k prior. Continuing Claims for the week of March 17th rose 35k to 1871k from an upwardly revised 1836k prior. Further, we also received the Personal Income for the month of February, which came in line with expectations at 0.40%; Personal Spending also came in line with expectations which rose 0.20% in February.

The February PCE Deflator rose 0.20% MoM following a 0.40% rise in January, accelerating the PCE Deflator YoY to 1.80% from 1.70% in January. Also released this morning, the February Core PCE inflation rose 0.20% MoM following a 0.30% increase in January, bringing the PCE Core YoY up to 1.60% from 1.50% prior. Lastly, we received the Chicago Purchasing Manager for the month of March which came in below expectations at 57.40 versus 62.00 per consensus.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Feb 0.15 0.88 0.12 0.02  
                   
  03/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Mar 33.50 21.40 37.20 -  
                   
  03/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.60% 0.75% 0.64% 0.67%  
                   
  03/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 6.15% 6.40% 6.30% 6.31%  
                   
  03/27 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar 22.00 15.00 28.00 -  
                   
  03/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Mar - 4.80% -1.10% -  
                   
  03/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Feb P 0.50% 1.10% 0.80% 1.00%  
                   
  03/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.70% 2.90% 2.50% -  
                   
  03/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T  3.80% 4.00% 3.80% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T  2.30% 2.30% 2.30% -  
                   
  03/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T   1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 2.00% 3.10% -4.70% -5.00%  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Feb - -4.40% -1.70% -1.90%  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Feb 1.60% 1.60% 1.50% -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% -  
                   
  03/29 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Mar  230k 215k 229k 227k  
                   
  03/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Mar  1870k 1871k 1828k 1836k  
                   
  03/29 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Mar - 56.80 56.80 -  
                   
  03/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 102.00 101.40 102.00 -  
                   
  03/30 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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