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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-23.5 (-10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-10 (-05)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, March 29, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Climb as Trade Optimism Grows
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.4263, 3.17 bps increased from prior closing of 2.3946.

The negotiators from the US and China are reviewing the fine details of a possible deal to end the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. It was reported that one of the main focuses now is to ensure nothing gets lost in translation in both English and Chinese versions. Stocks advanced on the news and with today’s gain, the S&P 500 is likely to realize the biggest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2009. The Nasdaq is also on pace for its best quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2012. Treasuries slid and WTI crude bounced back above $60 a barrel this morning. In the UK, Prime Minister May displayed her relentless as she put her already twice-rejected deal to another vote in Parliament later today. The pound rallied on speculation that some lawmakers could support May’s Brexit plan in today’s vote.

Personal Income in February increased 0.20% from -0.10% in January vs. 0.30% consensus. Personal Spending in January also increased 0.10% from a downwardly revised prior of -0.60% vs. 0.30% consensus. MNI Chicago PMI in March fell to 58.70 from 64.70 prior vs. 61.00 consensus. New Home Sales in February increased to 667k from an upwardly revised prior of 636k vs. 620k consensus. Lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment also rose to 98.40 vs. both consensus and prior of 97.80. Fed Governor Quarles will speak on macroprudential policy to the Shadow Open Market Committee in New York at 9:05 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.17 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Feb -0.38 -0.29 -0.43 -0.25  
                   
  03/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Mar 8.90 8.30 13.10 -  
                   
  03/26 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1210k 1162k 1230k 1273k  
                   
  03/26 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -1.60% -8.70% 18.60% 11.70%  
                   
  03/26 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1305k 1296k 1345k 1317k  
                   
  03/26 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -0.90% -1.60% 1.40% -0.70%  
                   
  03/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Jan 0.40% 0.60% 0.30% -  
                   
  03/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.30% 0.11% 0.19% 0.17%  
                   
  03/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 3.80% 3.58% 4.18% 4.14%  
                   
  03/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar 10.00 10.00 16.00 -  
                   
  03/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Mar - 8.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.30% 2.20% 2.60% -  
                   
  03/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 2.60% 2.50% 2.80% -  
                   
  03/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 1.80% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  03/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% -  
                   
  03/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Mar 220k 211k 221k 216k  
                   
  03/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Mar 1778k 1756k 1750k 1743k  
                   
  03/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Mar - 60.00 61.50 -  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb -0.50% -1.00% 4.60% 4.30%  
                   
  03/28 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Feb -3.00% -5.00% -3.20% -3.30%  
                   
  03/29 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.30% 0.20% -0.10% -  
                   
  03/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.10% -0.50% -0.60%  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% -0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jan 1.40% 1.40% 1.70% 1.80%  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  03/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jan 1.90% 1.80% 1.90% 2.00%  
                   
  03/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 97.80 98.40 97.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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