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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-22 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-05.5 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   2.346%  
 
  Resistance   2.436%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, March 30, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.395% this morning after closing at 2.377% yesterday.

This morning, U.S. Treasuries are lower across the curve after yesterday’s rally. The dollar continued to strengthen with the index up 0.09% to 100.01 and WTI crude oil prices are up 0.50% to $49.77 per barrel.

In economic news, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.10% in the 4th quarter of 2016, a 0.20% increase from the 3rd quarter. Personal Consumption, increased by 3.50%, 0.50% higher than the previous quarter as the value of goods rose 0.30% and value of services grew 0.60%. Excluding food and energy prices, Core PCE improved by 1.30% vs. 1.20% in the third quarter.

Filings for initial jobless claims dropped by 3K to 258K for the week ended March 25th, remaining under the 300K mark since early 2015. The states with the largest number of claims were California, Pennsylvania and New York. The less volatile 4-week average increased to 254,250 from 246,500, the highest level in 3 months. Claims for those continuing to receive benefits rose by 65K to 2052K for the week ended March 18th. Consumer Confidence declined to 49.70 from 51.30, the first decline in 5 weeks as more Americans were less optimistic about the prospect of their finances in part due to the 7-day streak of losses in stock prices.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 1.8 bps up from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Mar 22.00 16.90 24.50 -  
                   
  03/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Feb P 0.20% 0.40% -0.20% -0.30%  
                   
  03/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.70% 0.86% 0.93% -  
                   
  03/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 5.60% 5.73% 5.58% 5.47%  
                   
  03/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar 15.00 22.00 17.00 -  
                   
  03/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Mar - -0.80% -2.70% -  
                   
  03/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 2.50% 5.50% -2.80% -  
                   
  03/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Feb - -2.40% 2.70% -  
                   
  03/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.00% 2.10% 1.90% -  
                   
  03/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 3.00% 3.50% 3.00% -  
                   
  03/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -  
                   
  03/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.20% 1.30% 1.20% -  
                   
  03/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Mar 247 K 258 K 261 K -  
                   
  03/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Mar 2031 K 2052 K 1990 K 1987 K  
                   
  03/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Mar - 49.70 51.30 -  
                   
  03/31 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  03/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% - 0.40% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Feb 2.10% - 1.90% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 97.60 - 97.60 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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