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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-19 (+03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-06 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   2.346%  
 
  Resistance   2.436%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, March 31, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.395% this morning after closing at 2.419% yesterday.

Yesterday, U.S. Treasuries sold-off driven by mostly positive economic data and bullish Fedspeak also added pressure to push yields higher overnight. This morning, Treasuries are gaining back some of yesterday’s losses following mixed economic data.

The Dept. of Commerce released February data for Personal Income indicating a rise of 0.40% to $57.70 Billion after a 0.50% revised increase the previous month. The rise in income was due to an overall growth in wages and salaries as well as an uptick in individual rental income. Personal Spending increased 0.10% vs. a 0.20% rise previously and Real Personal Spending declined -0.10%. The slowdown in spending was reflected by a decrease in demand for services. Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), a gauge to measure inflation used by the Fed, reflected a slowing in monthly growth, rising by 0.10% vs. a 0.40% increase in January. Year-over-year, however, PCE reached its highest level in 5-years, reflected a gain of 2.10% and officially surpassing the FOMC’s target inflation rate of 2.00%.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index rose to 57.70, the strongest level in over 2 years, as new orders, inventories and production increased in the month of March. Consumer Confidence dropped to 96.90 from 97.60 according to the University of Michigan Conditions Survey, however, sentiment level remain at their healthiest levels in more than a decade.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year 2.4 bps down from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Mar 22.00 16.90 24.50 -  
                   
  03/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Feb P 0.20% 0.40% -0.20% -0.30%  
                   
  03/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.70% 0.86% 0.93% -  
                   
  03/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 5.60% 5.73% 5.58% 5.47%  
                   
  03/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Mar 15.00 22.00 17.00 -  
                   
  03/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Mar - -0.80% -2.70% -  
                   
  03/29 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 2.50% 5.50% -2.80% -  
                   
  03/29 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Feb - -2.40% 2.70% -  
                   
  03/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q T 2.00% 2.10% 1.90% -  
                   
  03/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q T 3.00% 3.50% 3.00% -  
                   
  03/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q T 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -  
                   
  03/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q T 1.20% 1.30% 1.20% -  
                   
  03/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Mar 247 K 258 K 261 K -  
                   
  03/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Mar 2031 K 2052 K 1990 K 1987 K  
                   
  03/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Mar - 49.70 51.30 -  
                   
  03/31 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  03/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% 0.10% 0.40% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Feb 2.10% 2.10% 1.90% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% -  
                   
  03/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Feb 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% 1.80%  
                   
  03/31 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar F 97.60 96.90 97.60 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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