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Market Commentary


 

 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   107-21.5 (+10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-21 (00)  
 
  Support   2.594%  
 
  Resistance   0.336%  
 
 
 
 
  Tuesday, March 31, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Decline Further as Stocks Turn Positive

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.6821, 4.43 bps decreased from prior closing of 0.7264.

US stocks edged higher again this morning as investors weigh a quick economic rebound after futures gave up earlier gains triggered by a possible fourth round of stimulus. Also, oil producers jumped in the premarket as crude oil rebounded. Despite the recent efforts to come back from the deep losses triggered by the pandemic, the Dow and S&P are heading for one of its worst quarterly performances; the Dow is so far down 21.8% this quarter which marks its worst quarter since 1987 and its worst first quarter ever, and the S&P 500 is down 18.7%, marking its worst quarter since 2008 and its worst first quarter since 1938. On the coronavirus front, the spread of the virus does not appear to be slowing down. The death toll surged in Spain and the total confirmed cases exceeded 160,000 in the US. Treasuries and the dollar rose against its major peers, and WTI crude edged higher this morning, trading above $20 a barrel.

S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller 20-City Home Price index rose YoY to 3.08% from a downwardly revised prior of 2.84% but came in below consensus of 3.20%. MNI Chicago PMI in March printed 47.80 vs. 40.00 consensus and 49.00 prior reading, and lastly, Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in above consensus of 110.00 at 120.00. Its prior reading of 130.70 was upwardly revised to 132.60.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 4.43 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb -1.80% 2.40% 5.20% 5.30%  
                   
  03/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Jan 0.40% 0.30% 0.43% 0.41%  
                   
  03/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Jan 3.20% 3.08% 2.85% 2.84%  
                   
  04/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Mar - - -29.40% -  
                   
  04/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Mar -150k - 183k -  
                   
  04/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar F 48.00 - 49.20 -  
                   
  04/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Feb 0.60% - 1.80% -  
                   
  04/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Mar 45.00 - 50.10 -  
                   
  04/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Mar 41.60 - 45.90 -  
                   
  04/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Mar 3500k - 3283k -  
                   
  04/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Mar 4882k - 1803k -  
                   
  04/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Mar - - 59.70 -  
                   
  04/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Feb F 1.20% - 1.20% -  
                   
  04/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Feb F -0.60% - -0.60% -  
                   
  04/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Mar -100k - 273k -  
                   
  04/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Mar 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  04/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Mar 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  04/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar F 38.50 - 39.10 -  
                   
  04/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar F - - 40.50 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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