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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-00.5 (-14) 1.886%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   105-06 (-03)  
 
  Support   2.40%  
 
  Resistance   1.62%  
 
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Thursday, April 02, 2015
 
 
       The number of Americans filing for unemployment fell by -20K last week, which may signal a strengthening labor market. Jobless Claims fell to 268K for the week ended March 28th (consensus 286K) and the prior week was revised up from 282K to 288K; this is the lowest Jobless Claims reading since January 24th. The four week moving average for Jobless Claims decreased from 300,250 to 285,500. Continuing Claims fell by -88K to 2325K (consensus 2405K) and the prior week was revised down from 2416K to 2413K. The goods and services deficit was $35.4 Billion in February, down -$7.2 Billion from $42.7 Billion in January (revised). February’s decline in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of -$7.4 Billion to $55.2 Billion coupled with a decrease in the services surplus of -$0.1 Billion to $19.7 Billion. While employment has been the bright spot for the U.S. economy thus far in 2015, inflation is slowing, which in turn has pushed 10-Year yields down roughly 0.25% so far this year. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls report as improvement in the labor market has been the Federal Reserve’s main selling point for raising interest rates. The curve has bear steepened with 2s10s up +1.4 bps.
 
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/30 Personal Income 05:30 Feb 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%  
  03/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.10% -0.20% -  
  03/31 S&P/Case-shiller US HPI MoM 06:00 Jan - 0.57% 0.73% 0.71%  
  03/31 S&P/Case-shiller US HPI YoY 06:00 Jan - 4.47% 4.62% 4.58%  
  04/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 Mar 27 - 4.60% 9.50% -  
  04/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Mar 225K 189K 212K 214K  
  04/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar F 55.30 55.70 55.30 -  
  04/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Feb -0.10% -0.10% -1.10% -1.70%  
  04/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Mar 52.50 51.50 52.90 -  
  04/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 Mar 28 286K 268K 282K 288K  
  04/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 Mar 21 2405K 2325K 2416K 2413K  
  04/02 Trade Balance 05:30 Feb -$41.20 Bn -$35.40 Bn -$41.80 Bn -$42.70 Bn  
  04/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Feb -0.40% - -0.20% -  
  04/03 Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Mar 245K - 295K -  
  04/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Mar 5.50% - 5.50% -  
 
 
 
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