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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-31.5 (-11)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-30.5 (-04.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, April 03, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rise on Trade Hopes
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5062, 3.21 bps increased from prior closing of 2.4741.

As Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will resume trade talks with his US counterparts in Washington today, it was reported that many outstanding issues have already been agreed in Beijing. Rising expectations that a breakthrough was nearing between the two countries attracted investors to riskier assets this morning. This positive sentiment got amplified even further as fears over global growth eased after China posted their stronger-than-expected services and composite PMI data. However, gains were capped by the US employment data released at 5:15 AM (PT), posting a weaker-than-expected reading. On Brexit front, Prime Minister May will meet her opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to find common ground and potential deal that would pass a vote in Parliament. Treasuries slid and WTI crude continued to trade over $62 a barrel this morning.

MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 18.60% after rising 8.90% in prior week. Both purchases and refinances increased 3.40% and 38.50% after rising 6.40% and 12.40% in prior week. ADP Employment Change in March came in surprisingly low at 129k from upwardly revised prior of 197k vs. 175k consensus. Markit US Services PMI rose to 55.30 from both prior and consensus of 54.80, and Composite PMI also rose to 54.60 from 54.30 prior. Lastly, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index in March fell to 56.10 from 59.70 prior vs. 58.00 consensus. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak at North Dakota State University at 2:00 PM (PT) today. On Friday, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls data for March will be released.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.21 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/01 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% -0.20% 0.20% 0.70%  
                   
  04/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Mar F 52.50 52.40 52.50 -  
                   
  04/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Feb -0.20% 1.00% 1.30% 2.50%  
                   
  04/01 Business Inventories 07:00 Jan 0.50% 0.80% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  04/02 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Feb P -1.80% -1.60% 0.30% 0.10%  
                   
  04/02 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Feb P 0.10% 0.10% -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  04/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Mar - 18.60% 8.90% -  
                   
  04/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Mar 175k 129k 183k 197k  
                   
  04/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Mar F 54.80 55.30 54.80 -  
                   
  04/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Mar F - 54.60 54.30 -  
                   
  04/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Mar - - 117.20% -  
                   
  04/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Mar 215k - 211k -  
                   
  04/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Mar 1750k - 1756k -  
                   
  04/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Mar - - 60.00 -  
                   
  04/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Mar 179k - 20k -  
                   
  04/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Mar 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  04/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  04/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Mar 3.40% - 3.40% -  
                   
  04/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Mar - - 63.20% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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