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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-10.5 (+08.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-04.5 (+05.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower as Concerns over Global Economy Loom
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.4667, 3.39 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.5006.

US stock futures held modest gains as investors digested the latest inflation data. Treasuries also advanced as investors weighed key developments that raised concerns over the global economy. Despite of recent positive developments including the US labor market and China’s encouraging manufacturing data which have promoted optimism over the global economy, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the third time in six months. The IMF cut its global growth outlook to its lowest point of 3.30% since the financial crisis, down from the previous outlook of 3.50%. Also, the European Central Bank reiterated that ongoing issues in the euro-area were slowing growth momentum, and signaled no rate hikes for the rest of the year. On Brexit front, the EU may reportedly offer the UK a delay of up to 12 months at a summit in Brussels today. Elsewhere, WTI crude continued to trade above $64 a barrel this morning.

MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.60% after rising 18.60% in prior week. Purchases increased 0.50% and refinances fell 11.40% after rising 3.40% and 38.50% in prior week, respectively. The headline CPI in March came in line with expectation of 0.40% which was the largest increase in over a year. However, the core printed a reading slightly below consensus of 0.20% at 0.10% and the YoY change topped the estimation of 1.80% at 1.90%. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $24 billion of 10-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT), and both minutes from the March FOMC meeting and Monthly Budget Statement will be released at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.39 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/08 Factory Orders 07:00 Feb -0.50% -0.50% 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  04/08 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Feb F -1.60% -1.60% -1.60% -  
                   
  04/08 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Feb F 0.10% -0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  04/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Mar 102.00 101.80 101.70 -  
                   
  04/09 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Feb 7550 7087 7581 7625  
                   
  04/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Apr - -5.60% 18.60% -  
                   
  04/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Mar 1.80% 1.90% 1.50% -  
                   
  04/10 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 20 Mar - - - -  
                   
  04/10 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Mar -$181.00b - -$208.70b -  
                   
  04/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  04/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Mar 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  04/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Apr 210k - 202k -  
                   
  04/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Mar 1735k - 1717k -  
                   
  04/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 7 Apr - - 58.90 -  
                   
  04/12 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Mar 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  04/12 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Mar -0.70% - -1.30% -  
                   
  04/12 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Mar 0.20% - 0.60% -  
                   
  04/12 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Mar - - 0.30% -  
                   
  04/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr P 98.10 - 98.40 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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