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Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-03.5 (-09)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-01.5 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, April 11, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Climb on Upbeat Economic Data
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.4916, 2.67 bps increased from prior closing of 2.4649.

US stock index futures pointed to a higher opening this morning on the trade hopes and optimistic economic data. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said in an interview yesterday that the US and China had agreed on an enforcement mechanism for when a deal is struck. However, he also added that there wouldn’t be an arbitrary deadline for the deal which will be the most significant changes to the economic relationship between the two countries in the last 40 years if completed. On Brexit front, the UK was granted to extend the deadline of leaving the bloc until October 31st but how Brexit will look like still remained uncertain. Elsewhere, WTI crude continued to trade above $64 a barrel this morning. The continued surge in crude this year can be attributed to supply concerns including OPEC’s production cuts, Iran sanctions and conflict in Libya.

The headline PPI in March came in above expectation of 0.30% at 0.60%, a 0.50% increase from prior of 0.10%. The core PPI also climbed to 0.30% from 0.10% prior vs. 0.20% consensus. The YoY change increased to 2.20% from 1.90% prior vs. 1.90% consensus. Initial Jobless Claims renewed the lowest level in 49 years again as it reported 196k from revised prior of 204k vs. 210k consensus. Continuing Claims also fell to 1713k from an upwardly revised prior of 1726k vs. 1735k consensus. Lastly, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort printed 59.80 vs. 58.90 prior. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $50 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT), and $16 billion of 30-Year bonds at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.67 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/08 Factory Orders 07:00 Feb -0.50% -0.50% 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  04/08 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Feb F -1.60% -1.60% -1.60% -  
                   
  04/08 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Feb F 0.10% -0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  04/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Mar 102.00 101.80 101.70 -  
                   
  04/09 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Feb 7550 7087 7581 7625  
                   
  04/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Apr - -5.60% 18.60% -  
                   
  04/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Mar 1.80% 1.90% 1.50% -  
                   
  04/10 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 20 Mar - - - -  
                   
  04/10 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Mar -$181.00b -$146.90b -$208.70b -  
                   
  04/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.60% 0.10% -  
                   
  04/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Mar 1.90% 2.20% 1.90% -  
                   
  04/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Apr 210k 196k 202k 204k  
                   
  04/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Mar 1735k 1713k 1717k 1726k  
                   
  04/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 7 Apr - 59.80 58.90 -  
                   
  04/12 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Mar 0.40% - 0.60% -  
                   
  04/12 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Mar -0.60% - -1.30% -  
                   
  04/12 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Mar 0.20% - 0.60% -  
                   
  04/12 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Mar - - 0.30% -  
                   
  04/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr P 98.10 - 98.40 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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