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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-18.5 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-24 (00)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, April 15, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Steady as Investors Await Earnings
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries slightly higher across all maturities. The 10-Year treasury yield is currently at 2.555, declining 1.1 bps from prior closing of 2.566.

Treasuries held steady overnight as traders shifted their focus to the latest batch of corporate earnings amid a light economic calendar. U.S. Stock Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow indices drifted as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. missed revenue estimates, while Citigroup Inc. met earnings expectations. U.S. banks earnings season continue this week with reports due from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and American Express. Meanwhile, President Trump renewed his attack on the Fed over the weekend, stating that the stock market would be “5,000 to 10,000” points higher had it not been for the actions of the central bank. Several Fed members are scheduled to speak this week beginning with Fed President Evans and Fed Rosengren later today. Elsewhere, oil slipped after a report showed increased U.S. oil-rig activity, while the dollar was little unchanged with treasuries overnight.

Empire Manufacturing rose to 10.10 in April following the unexpected drop to 3.70 in March. The index jumped more than expected as consensus called for the reading to rise to 8.00. The February Net Long-term TIC Flows and Total Net TIC Flows will be available later this afternoon. The remaining of this week’s economic calendar will remain relatively light ahead of Thursday’s March Retail Sales data. On Tuesday, the March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports will be available, and on Wednesday the February Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories will be released along with the Fed’s latest Beige Book. The calendar wraps up on Friday with the March Housing Starts and Building Permits.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.1 bps from prior closing
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Apr 8.00 10.10 3.70 -  
                   
  04/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Mar 0.20% - 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  04/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Mar 79.20% - 78.20% 79.10%  
                   
  04/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Apr 63.00 - 62.00 -  
                   
  04/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Apr - - -5.60% -  
                   
  04/17 Trade Balance 05:30 Feb -$53.50b - -$51.10b -  
                   
  04/17 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 1.20% -  
                   
  04/17 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Feb - - 0.50% -  
                   
  04/17 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  04/18 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Mar 1.00% - -0.20% -  
                   
  04/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Apr 205k - 196k -  
                   
  04/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Apr 1722k - 1713k -  
                   
  04/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Apr 11.00 - 13.70 -  
                   
  04/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Apr - - 59.80 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr P 52.80 - 52.40 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr P 55.00 - 55.30 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr P - - 54.60 -  
                   
  04/18 Leading Index 07:00 Mar 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  04/18 Business Inventories 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 0.80% -  
                   
  04/19 Housing Starts 05:30 Mar 1230k - 1162k -  
                   
  04/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Mar 5.90% - -8.70% -  
                   
  04/19 Building Permits 05:30 Mar 1300k - 1296k 1291k  
                   
  04/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Mar 0.70% - -1.60% -2.00%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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