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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-12.5 (-06.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-21 (-03)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rise on Corporate Earnings Optimism
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries lower across all maturities. The 10-Year treasury yield is currently at 2.580, increasing 2.5 bps from prior closing of 2.555.

Treasuries fell overnight while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher as BlackRock Inc. and Bank of America both posted strong earnings. Equities have firmed up since yesterday’s disappointing earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as investors show confidence in the remaining corporate reports due this week. The focus now shifts to tech sector with IBM and Netflix earnings due after today’s close. Yesterday Chicago Fed President Evans, who currently sees rates on hold until late 2020, spoke on the economy which he described as “doing fine”, but stated that inflation has been weaker than he expected. More Fed Officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week beginning with Dallas Fed President Kaplan later this morning. In commodity space, oil is near lowest level in a week after estimates showed that U.S. crude inventories increased again.

Industrial Production fell 0.10% in March following an unrevised 0.10% increase the month prior. Consensus called for a 0.20% increase in production so the data came in weaker than expectations. Manufacturing Production was unchanged at 0.00% in March following an upwardly revised 0.30% decline prior. Capacity Utilization rate dipped to 78.80% in March after an upwardly revised 79.00% showing in February. The consensus on Capacity Utilization was 79.20% so the data also came in weaker than expected. Lastly, the April NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 63.00 as expected following an unrevised reading of 62.00 prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.5 bps from prior closing
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Apr 8.00 10.10 3.70 -  
                   
  04/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Mar 0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 0.10%  
                   
  04/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Mar 79.20% 78.80% 78.20% 79.00%  
                   
  04/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Apr 63.00 63.00 62.00 -  
                   
  04/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Apr - - -5.60% -  
                   
  04/17 Trade Balance 05:30 Feb -$53.40b - -$51.10b -  
                   
  04/17 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 1.20% -  
                   
  04/17 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 0.50% -  
                   
  04/17 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  04/18 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Mar 1.00% - -0.20% -  
                   
  04/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Apr 205k - 196k -  
                   
  04/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Apr 1722k - 1713k -  
                   
  04/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Apr 11.00 - 13.70 -  
                   
  04/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Apr - - 59.80 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr P 52.80 - 52.40 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr P 55.00 - 55.30 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr P - - 54.60 -  
                   
  04/18 Leading Index 07:00 Mar 0.40% - 0.20% -  
                   
  04/18 Business Inventories 07:00 Feb 0.30% - 0.80% -  
                   
  04/19 Housing Starts 05:30 Mar 1230k - 1162k -  
                   
  04/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Mar 5.90% - -8.70% -  
                   
  04/19 Building Permits 05:30 Mar 1300k - 1296k 1291k  
                   
  04/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Mar 0.70% - -1.60% -2.00%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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