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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-20.5 (+12)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-24 (+05.5)  
 
  Support   2.965%  
 
  Resistance   2.180%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, April 18, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower Before Long Weekend
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. The 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.3760, 2.42 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.4002.

As markets are set to close early ahead of the long holiday weekend, US stock index futures rose on strong retail sales data. Equities initially pointed to a weak open on disappointing economic data out of Europe, especially with manufacturing activity in France hitting a four-year low, but reversed as the session carried on. As corporate earnings season continues, more than 78.00% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported topped expectations so far. However, despite of solid corporate earnings and economic data, and optimistic signals from the trade talks had not been enough to stimulate risk appetite so far this week. Elsewhere, WTI crude continued to trade above $63 a barrel this morning. Attorney General William Barr will publish a redacted version of Special Counsel Mueller’s final report which is expected to be delivered to Congress before 9:00 AM (PT).

The headline Retail Sales in March topped estimation of 1.00% at 1.60%, a 1.80% increase from -0.20% prior. The core reading also climbed to 1.20% from a revised prior of -0.20% vs. 0.70% consensus. Initial Jobless Claims renewed its 49-year low level again at 192k from a revised prior of 197k vs. 205k consensus. Continuing Claims also fell to 1653k from 1716k revised prior vs. 1722k consensus. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort continued today’s barrage of strong economic data as it printed 60.30 vs. 59.80 prior. Markit US Manufacturing PMI came in unchanged from prior of 52.40 and lastly, Leading Index came in line with consensus of 0.40%, a 0.30% increase from a revised prior of 0.10%. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off 17 billion of 5-year TIPS at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.42 bps
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Apr 8.00 10.10 3.70 -  
                   
  04/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Mar 0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 0.10%  
                   
  04/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Mar 79.20% 78.80% 78.20% 79.00%  
                   
  04/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Apr 63.00 63.00 62.00 -  
                   
  04/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Apr - -3.50% -5.60% -  
                   
  04/17 Trade Balance 05:30 Feb -$53.40b -$49.40b -$51.10b -  
                   
  04/17 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Feb 0.30% 0.20% 1.20% -  
                   
  04/17 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% -  
                   
  04/17 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  04/18 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Mar 1.00% 1.60% -0.20% -  
                   
  04/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Apr 205k 192k 196k 197k  
                   
  04/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Apr 1722k 1653k 1713k 1716k  
                   
  04/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Apr 11.00 8.50 13.70 -  
                   
  04/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Apr - 60.30 59.80 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr P 52.80

52.40

52.40 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr P 55.00 52.90 55.30 -  
                   
  04/18 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr P - 52.80 54.60 -  
                   
  04/18 Leading Index 07:00 Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  04/18 Business Inventories 07:00 Feb 0.30% 0.30% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  04/19 Housing Starts 05:30 Mar 1228k - 1162k -  
                   
  04/19 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Mar 5.70% - -8.70% -  
                   
  04/19 Building Permits 05:30 Mar 1300k - 1296k 1291k  
                   
  04/19 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Mar 0.70% - -1.60% -2.00%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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