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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-19.5 (-10.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-13 (-08)  
 
  Support   2.950%  
 
  Resistance   2.719%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, April 19, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.916% after closing at 2.874% during the prior session.

The downward trajectory for treasuries continued at today’s opening following low-trading and debt sell-offs in European markets earlier in the day; while inflation-protected debt held ground ahead of today’s auction of $16 Billion in 5-Year TIPS at 10:00 AM (PT).

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on April 14 reached 232k, above estimates of 230k but marginally below previous 233k mark. Continuing Claims for the week ended on April 7 reached 1863k, above estimates of 1845k but down from previous 1878k revised mark. Further, the Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index scored 52.50 for April versus 56.00 prior; while Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index for the week ended April 15 scored 58.10 versus 58.00 prior. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for April came in at 23.20, above consensus of 21.00 and above previous 22.30 mark; while the Conference Board’s Leading Index for March rose 0.30% during the period, in line with market estimates but down from prior 0.70% revised mark.

Featured Federal Reserve speakers for today include Governor Brainard, who will discuss regulatory reform in Washington; Vice Chair Quarles, who will give the semi-annual testimony before the Senate’s Banking Committee; and Cleveland’s President Mester, who will discuss policy and the economy in Pittsburg.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 4.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Apr 18.40 15.80 22.50 -  
                   
  04/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.60% -0.10% -  
                   
  04/16 Business Inventories 07:00 Feb 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% -  
                   
  04/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Apr 70.00 69.00 70.00 -  
                   
  04/16 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Feb - $44.70b $119.70b $122.60b  
                   
  04/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Feb - $49.00b $62.10b $61.40b  
                   
  04/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Mar 1267k 1319k 1236k 1295k  
                   
  04/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Mar 2.50% 1.90% -7.00% -3.30%  
                   
  04/17 Building Permits 05:30 Mar 1321k 1354k 1298k 1321k  
                   
  04/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Mar 0.00% 2.50% -5.70% -4.10%  
                   
  04/17 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Mar 0.30% 0.50% 1.10% 1.00%  
                   
  04/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Mar 77.90% 78.00% 78.10% 77.70%  
                   
  04/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Apr - 4.90% -1.90% -  
                   
  04/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  04/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Apr 230k 232k 233k -  
                   
  04/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Apr 1845k 1863k 1871k 1878k  
                   
  04/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Apr 21.00 23.20 22.30 -  
                   
  04/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Apr - 58.10 58.00 -  
                   
  04/19 Leading Index 07:00 Mar 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% 0.70%  
                   
  04/20 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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