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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-29 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-27 (-05)  
 
  Support   2.994%  
 
  Resistance   2.719%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.991% after closing at 2.976% during the prior session.

The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note rose above 3% for the first time since 2014 at the opening of trading this morning. The breach on this psychological threshold for traders comes amid market concerns that the U.S. budget deficit will exceed $1 Trillion by 2020 according to the Congressional Budget Office. Further, with the Federal Reserve both signaling to rate increases and balance sheet downsizing, expectations are growing for increased debt. The Fed currently forecasts two additional rate increases in 2018.

On the economic calendar today, month-over-month FHFA House Price Index rose 0.60% during February, matching survey but dropping from its previous 0.90% revised mark. Year-over-year S&P CoreLogic 20-City Home Prices during February also rose by 6.80%, exceeding estimates of 6.35% and rising above its 6.43% previous revised mark. Also in today, New Home Sales for March reached 694k, above estimates of 630k and previous revised mark of 667k; while month-over-month New Home Sales for March rose 4.00%, exceeding survey of 1.90% and prior revised mark of 3.60%. Finally, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence scored 128.70 during April, above survey of 126.00 and prior 127.00 revised mark; while Conference Board Expectations for the same period scored 108.10 versus 106.20 prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Mar 0.28 0.10 0.88 0.98  
                   
  04/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr P 55.20 56.50 55.60 -  
                   
  04/23 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr P 54.10 54.40 54.00 -  
                   
  04/23 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr P - 54.80 54.20 -  
                   
  04/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Mar 5.55m 5.60m 5.54m -  
                   
  04/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 0.20% 1.10% 3.00% -  
                   
  04/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Feb 0.60% 0.60% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Feb 0.70% 0.83% 0.75% 0.81%  
                   
  04/24 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Feb 6.35% 6.80% 6.40% 6.43%  
                   
  04/24 New Home Sales 07:00 Mar 630k 694k 618k 667k  
                   
  04/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 1.90% 4.00% -0.60% 3.60%  
                   
  04/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Apr 16.00 -3.00 15.00 -  
                   
  04/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 20 Apr - - 4.90% -  
                   
  04/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Mar P 0.70% - 1.00% -  
                   
  04/26 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 21 Apr 230k - 232k -  
                   
  04/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 14 Apr 1850k - 1863k -  
                   
  04/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Mar P 1.60% - 3.00% -  
                   
  04/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Mar P 0.40% - 1.00% -  
                   
  04/26 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 22 Apr - - 58.10 -  
                   
  04/26 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Apr 17.00 - 17.00 -  
                   
  04/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q A 2.00% - 2.90% -  
                   
  04/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q A 1.20% - 4.00% -  
                   
  04/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q A 2.20% - 2.30% -  
                   
  04/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q A 2.50% - 1.90% -  
                   
  04/27 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr F 98.00 - 97.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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