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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-28.5 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-27 (-01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.393%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, April 25, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Remain Steady as Investors Digest Earnings Results
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5217, 0.36 bp increased from prior closing of 2.5181.

Stocks were mixed this morning as investors parsed a slew of earnings reports. The DJIA slid after 3M reported earnings much lower than estimates. It also slashed its forecast and announced plans to cut 2,000 jobs worldwide. Tech shares, however, pointed to a small gain following strong results from Microsoft and Facebook after the Wednesday close. More than 170 S&P companies have reported their results so far and about 78.00% of those companies topped analysts’ expectations against a backdrop of global growth concerns. Corporate earnings will remain the biggest market focus for the rest of the week along with the initial print on first quarter US GDP tomorrow. Elsewhere, the dollar reached a four-month high and WTI crude edged below $66 a barrel this morning.

After 3 weeks of renewing its 49-year low, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 230k from an upwardly revised prior of 193k vs. 200k consensus. Continuing Claims, however, remained nearly unchanged at 1655k from an upwardly revised prior of 1654k vs. 1682k consensus. The headline Durable Goods Orders in March printed a strong reading of 2.70% vs. an upwardly revised prior of -1.10% and 0.80% consensus. The core also slightly climbed to 0.40% from a downwardly revised prior of -0.20% vs. 0.20% consensus. Lastly, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort came in at 60.80 vs. 60.30 prior. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $50 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT), and $32 billion of 7-year notes at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.36 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Mar -0.10 -0.15 -0.29 -0.31  
                   
  04/22 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Mar 5.30m 5.21m 5.51m 5.48m  
                   
  04/22 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar -3.80% -4.90% 11.80% 11.20%  
                   
  04/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Feb 0.50% 0.30% 0.60% -  
                   
  04/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Apr 10.00 3.00 10.00 -  
                   
  04/23 New Home Sales 07:00 Mar 649k 692k 667k 662k  
                   
  04/23 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar -2.70% 4.50% 4.90% 5.90%  
                   
  04/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19 Apr - -7.30% -3.50% -  
                   
  04/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Mar P 0.80% 2.70% -1.60% -1.10%  
                   
  04/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Mar P 0.20% 0.40% -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  04/25 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20 Apr 200k 230k 192k 193k  
                   
  04/25 Continuing Claims 05:30 13 Apr 1682k 1655k 1653k 1654k  
                   
  04/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 21 Apr - 60.80 60.30 -  
                   
  04/25 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Apr 8.00 - 10.00 -  
                   
  04/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q A 2.30% - 2.20% -  
                   
  04/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q A 1.00% - 2.50% -  
                   
  04/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q A 1.20% - 1.70% -  
                   
  04/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q A 1.30% - 1.80% -  
                   
  04/26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr F 97.00 - 96.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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