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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-03 (+10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-01 (+06.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.426%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, April 26, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower after Growth Data
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5000, 3.25 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.5325.

Both stocks and Treasuries rallied after better-than-expected GDP growth overshadowed weak personal consumption. Two Dow components, Exxon and Intel fell in the premarket after reporting quarterly earnings that missed expectations and issuing light revenue forecast for the year, respectively. Also, Deutsche Bank AG slashed its revenue outlook for the year after suffering its ninth straight quarter of contraction following the collapse of merger talks with Commerzbank AG. Amazon, on the other hand, traded higher after reporting stronger-than-expected results yesterday along with its announcement to push for one-day delivery for Prime members. Elsewhere, WTI crude retreated, trading below $64 a barrel this morning, and wiped out gains from earlier this week.

The first quarter GDP in 2019 grew 3.20% from 2.20% prior and 2.30% consensus. Exports rose 3.70% in the first quarter, while imports decreased by 3.70%. Disposable personal income increased by 3.00%, while Overall prices climbed by 0.80%. Personal Consumption dropped to 1.20% from 2.50% prior but still topped estimation of 1.00% in the first quarter. GDP Price Index also fell to 0.90% from 1.70% prior vs. 1.20% consensus. Lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment rose to 97.20 from 96.90 prior vs. 97.00 consensus in April.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.25 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Mar -0.10 -0.15 -0.29 -0.31  
                   
  04/22 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Mar 5.30m 5.21m 5.51m 5.48m  
                   
  04/22 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar -3.80% -4.90% 11.80% 11.20%  
                   
  04/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Feb 0.50% 0.30% 0.60% -  
                   
  04/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Apr 10.00 3.00 10.00 -  
                   
  04/23 New Home Sales 07:00 Mar 649k 692k 667k 662k  
                   
  04/23 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar -2.70% 4.50% 4.90% 5.90%  
                   
  04/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19 Apr - -7.30% -3.50% -  
                   
  04/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Mar P 0.80% 2.70% -1.60% -1.10%  
                   
  04/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Mar P 0.20% 0.40% -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  04/25 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20 Apr 200k 230k 192k 193k  
                   
  04/25 Continuing Claims 05:30 13 Apr 1682k 1655k 1653k 1654k  
                   
  04/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 21 Apr - 60.80 60.30 -  
                   
  04/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q A 2.30% 3.20% 2.20% -  
                   
  04/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q A 1.00% 1.20% 2.50% -  
                   
  04/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q A 1.20% 0.90% 1.70% -  
                   
  04/26 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q A 1.40% 1.30% 1.80% -  
                   
  04/26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr F 97.00 97.20 96.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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