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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-29 (-02) 1.860%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-19.5 (00)  
 
  Support   2.050%  
 
  Resistance   1.700%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Thursday, April 28, 2016
 
 
        Initial Jobless Claims posted nearly in line with expectations at 257K (consensus 259K) vs. 248K prior (revised) to mark the 60th consecutive week of claims below 300K (longest stretch since 1973). The four-week moving average for Claims decreased to 256,000K from 260,750K. Continuing Claims edged down from 2135K to 2130K (consensus 2136K).
 
        GDP QoQ increased 0.50% in the first quarter (slowest pace in two years), according to the advanced estimate, coming in below the consensus for a 0.70% advance. GDP grew 1.40% during the fourth quarter of last year. The increase in Q1 GDP reflected positive contributions from PCE, residential fixed investment, and state/local government spending and was offset by a nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, exports, imports, and federal government spending. Personal Consumption grew more than anticipated, up 1.90% (consensus +1.70%) vs. +2.40% prior with Core PCE QoQ up 2.10% (consensus +1.90%) vs. +1.30% prior.
 
        Disappointing growth in the first quarter of the year has added to speculation that the Fed will be unable to hike in June, with the future implied probability of a hike declining from 21.10% to 14.00%. Yesterday the FOMC voted to once again hold its target interest rate unchanged at 0.250%-0.500%. The statement recognized further labor market tightening amidst a slowing economic growth environment, a rise in household real income, and moderated household spending. The Fed also removed the part of the statement that refers to the global economic and financial developments weighing on growth. Treasuries declined this morning following the data release and the curve has steepened with 2s10s up 2.1 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Mar 520K 511K 512K 519K  
                   
  04/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar  1.60% -1.50% 2.00% -0.40%  
                   
  04/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr -10.00 -13.90 -13.60 -  
                   
  04/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Mar P   1.90% 0.80%  -3.00% -3.10%  
                   
  04/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Mar P  0.50% -0.20%  -1.30% -  
                   
  04/26 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI MoM SA 06:00 Feb - 0.41% 0.52% 0.47%  
                   
  04/26 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Feb - 5.29% 5.43% 5.34%  
                   
  04/26 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr P 52.00 52.10 51.30 -  
                   
  04/26 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr P - 51.70 51.30 -  
                   
  04/26 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Apr 95.80 94.20 96.20 96.10  
                   
  04/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Apr 12.00 14.00 22.00 -  
                   
  04/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Apr  - -4.10% 1.30% -  
                   
  04/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 0.50% 1.40% 3.50% 3.40%  
                   
  04/27 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 27 Apr 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  04/27 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 27 Apr 0.25% - 0.25% -  
                   
  04/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Apr 259K 257K 247K 248K  
                   
  04/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q A 0.70%    0.50% 1.40% -  
                   
  04/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Apr 2136K 2130K 2137K 2135K  
                   
  04/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q A 1.70% 1.90% 2.40% -  
                   
  04/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q A 0.50%  0.70% 0.90% -  
                   
  04/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Apr - 43.40 42.90 -  
                   
  04/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Apr - -4.00 -6.00 -  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 0.80% - 1.00% -  
                   
  04/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Mar 0.10% -  0.10% -  
                   
  04/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Mar 1.50% -  1.70% -  
                   
  04/29 ISM Milwaukee 06:00 Apr - -   57.78 -  
                   
  04/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Apr F - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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