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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-27.5 (-07)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-29 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.463%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, April 29, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rise as Data-Rich Week Starts
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5234, 2.52 bps increased from prior closing of 2.4982.

Stocks slightly edged higher this morning as data-packed week kicked off. The FOMC rate decision will be released on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payroll data will be available on Friday which will provide investors better clarity and clues on global economic growth. Treasuries sank as the dollar strengthened. On the trade front, the next round of negotiations resumes in Beijing this week with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He tomorrow. It was reported that a few significant issues still remain unresolved and there’s still a chance that President Trump could walk away from the table. As corporate earnings season continues, Apple, Alphabet, GE, Pfizer, HSBC, BP and McDonald’s are set to post their quarterly results this week. Elsewhere, WTI crude slightly declined as doubts grew about the impact of supply squeeze.

Personal Income in March declined to 0.10% from 0.20% prior vs. 0.40% consensus. Personal Spending, however, increased to 0.90% from revised prior of 0.10% vs. 0.70% consensus. Lastly, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity dropped to 2.00 from a downwardly revised prior of 6.90 vs. 10.00 consensus. Treasuries started rebounding on the data after a sharp decline from earlier this morning. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $39 billion of 3-month bills and $36 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.52 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/29 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.70% 0.90% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.20% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 1.60% 1.50% - 1.30%  
                   
  04/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 10.00 2.00 8.30 6.90  
                   
  04/30 Employment Cost index  05:30 1Q 0.70% - 0.70% -  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Feb 0.25% - 0.11% -  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Feb 3.05% - 3.58% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 1.50% - -1.00% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar -4.00% - -5.00% -  
                   
  05/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Apr - - -7.30% -  
                   
  05/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 180k - 129k -  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.40 - 52.40 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 55.00 - 55.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 55.00 - 54.30 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.25% - 2.25% -  
                   
  05/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 2.20% - 1.90% -  
                   
  05/02 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 1.50% - 2.00% -  
                   
  05/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Apr 215k - 230k -  
                   
  05/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Apr 1664k - 1655k -  
                   
  05/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Apr - - 60.80 -  
                   
  05/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.50% - -0.50% -  
                   
  05/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - - 2.70% -  
                   
  05/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Mar P 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 185k - 196k -  
                   
  05/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 3.30% - 3.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 63.00% - 63.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.90 - 52.90 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - - 52.80 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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