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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-30 (+03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-28 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.463%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower after Economic Data Releases
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching higher across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5126, 1.26 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.5252.

Stocks were mixed as investors digest another busy day of corporate earnings and data releases. Treasuries slightly inched higher ahead of the Fed’s policy decision tomorrow. Tech stocks were poised to retreat after Alphabet posted weaker-than-expected results yesterday after the bell and Samsung’s profit missed recently reduced estimates. On the other hand, GE and Mastercard rose in premarket trading from strong earnings, and McDonald’s, a Dow component, also reported quarterly earnings and revenue topping expectations. Apple, HSBC, Macquarie and Royal Dutch Shell are among the companies set to report earnings this week. Elsewhere, WTI crude rallied above $64 a barrel this morning after Saudi Arabia signaled OPEC and its allies could extend supply cuts to the end of the year.

Employment Cost Index in the first quarter remained unchanged from prior reading of 0.70% and consensus of 0.70%. S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Home Composite Price Index rose 0.20% MoM from a downwardly revised prior of 0.09% vs. 0.20% consensus, and rose 3.00% YoY from a downwardly revised prior of 3.51% vs. 2.95% consensus which was the slowest pace since August 2012. MNI Chicago PMI in April surprisingly dropped to 52.60 from 58.70 prior vs. 58.50 consensus. Pending Home Sales in March topped estimation of 1.50% at 3.80%. Lastly, Conference Board Consumer Confidence in April rose to 129.20 from an upwardly revised prior of 124.20 vs. 126.80 consensus. Tomorrow, the FOMC rate decision will be released at 11:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.26 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/29 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.70% 0.90% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.20% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 1.60% 1.50% - 1.30%  
                   
  04/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 10.00 2.00 8.30 6.90  
                   
  04/30 Employment Cost index  05:30 1Q 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% -  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.11% 0.09%  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Feb 2.95% 3.00% 3.58% 3.51%  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 1.50% 3.80% -1.00% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar -4.00% -3.20% -5.00% -  
                   
  05/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Apr - - -7.30% -  
                   
  05/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 180k - 129k -  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.40 - 52.40 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 55.00 - 55.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 55.00 - 54.30 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.25% - 2.25% -  
                   
  05/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 2.20% - 1.90% -  
                   
  05/02 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 1.50% - 2.00% -  
                   
  05/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Apr 215k - 230k -  
                   
  05/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Apr 1664k - 1655k -  
                   
  05/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Apr - - 60.80 -  
                   
  05/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.50% - -0.50% -  
                   
  05/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - - 2.70% -  
                   
  05/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Mar P 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 185k - 196k -  
                   
  05/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 3.30% - 3.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 63.00% - 63.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.90 - 52.90 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - - 52.80 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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