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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-03 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-03 (-02.5)  
 
  Support   3.026%  
 
  Resistance   2.719%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, May 01, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.967% after closing at 2.954% prior.

This morning we received the final reading of the Markit US Manufacturing PMI for the month of April, which came in line with expectations at 56.50. We also received the March Construction Spending which fell 1.70% following an increase of 1.00% prior revised; consensus called for a 0.50% increase MoM. Further, the ISM Manufacturing reading for April came in below expectations at 57.30 versus 58.50 per consensus, while the ISM Prices Paid reading came in above expectations at 79.30 versus 78.50 per consensus.

The two-day FOMC meeting begins today with a policy announcement scheduled tomorrow at the conclusion of the meeting. The remainder of this week’s economic calendar includes the April ADP Employment Change on Wednesday, the March Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders prints on Thursday, and the employment report for the month of April on Friday.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/30 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  04/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%  
                   
  04/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% 1.70%  
                   
  04/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Mar 1.90% 1.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 0.70% 0.40% 3.10% 2.80%  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar - -4.40% -4.40% -4.70%  
                   
  04/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 23.00 21.80 21.40 22.80  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 56.50 56.50 56.50 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.50% -1.70% 0.10% 1.00%  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 58.50 57.30 59.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 78.50 79.30 78.10 -  
                   
  05/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Apr - - -0.20% -  
                   
  05/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 198k - 241k -  
                   
  05/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 2 May 1.75% - 1.75% -  
                   
  05/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 2 May 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  05/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - - 39.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 0.90% - 0.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Apr 225k - 209k -  
                   
  05/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Apr 1835k - 1837k -  
                   
  05/03 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 3.00% - 2.50% -  
                   
  05/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Mar -$50.00b - -$57.60b -  
                   
  05/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Apr - - 57.50 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 54.40 - 54.40 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - - 54.80 -  
                   
  05/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - - 2.60% -  
                   
  05/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - - 0.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.40% - 1.20% -  
                   
  05/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 191k - 103k -  
                   
  05/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 4.00% - 4.10% -  
                   
  05/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  05/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  05/04 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 62.90% - 62.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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