Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-19.5 (-14.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-24.5 (-06.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.457%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 02, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rise after the Rate Decision
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5305, 3.06 bps increased from prior closing of 2.4999.

Stocks advanced as bank and tech shares gained early in the session. The S&P 500 traded near its all-time high and the Nasdaq-100 also outperformed as Tesla surged. Yesterday, the Fed announced to leave the rates unchanged, and the Fed Chair Powell hinted that a rate cut might not be on the horizon as he referred recently low inflation pressures might just be “transitory”. His statement came after President Trump had asked the Fed to lower the rates ahead of the FOMC meeting. The next big clue on the outlook of the global economy will be tomorrow’s jobs report. Elsewhere, WTI crude slumped below $62 a barrel as a massive surge in US crude stockpiles diminished concerns over supply cuts around the world.

Initial Jobless Claims remained unchanged from prior reading of 230k and Continuing Claims slightly rose to 1671k from a downwardly revised prior of 1654k vs. 1660k consensus. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort slightly edged lower to 60.40 from 60.80 prior. Factory Orders in March, however, rose to 1.90% from an upwardly revised prior of -0.30% vs. 1.60% consensus. The core also rose to 0.80% from 0.30% prior. The headline Durable Goods Orders in March slightly lowered to 2.60% from 2.70% prior and the core also fell to 0.30% from 0.40% prior. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $50 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 3.06 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/29 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.70% 0.90% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.20% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 1.60% 1.50% - 1.30%  
                   
  04/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 10.00 2.00 8.30 6.90  
                   
  04/30 Employment Cost index  05:30 1Q 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% -  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.11% 0.09%  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Feb 2.95% 3.00% 3.58% 3.51%  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 1.50% 3.80% -1.00% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar -4.00% -3.20% -5.00% -  
                   
  05/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Apr - -4.30% -7.30% -  
                   
  05/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 180k 275k 129k 151k  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.40 52.60 52.40 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 55.00 52.80 55.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 55.00 50.00 54.30 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.00% -0.90% 1.00% 0.70%  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% -  
                   
  05/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - 10.90% 0.40% -  
                   
  05/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 2.20% 3.60% 1.90% 1.30%  
                   
  05/02 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 1.50% -0.90% 2.00% 2.50%  
                   
  05/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Apr 215k 230k 230k -  
                   
  05/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Apr 1660k 1671k 1655k 1654k  
                   
  05/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Apr - 60.40 60.80 -  
                   
  05/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.60% 1.90% -0.50% -0.30%  
                   
  05/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - 2.60% 2.70% -  
                   
  05/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Mar P 0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 190k - 196k -  
                   
  05/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 3.80% - 3.80% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 3.30% - 3.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 63.00% - 63.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.90 - 52.90 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - - 52.80 -
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved