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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-15.5 (+12.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-10 (+07)  
 
  Support   3.026%  
 
  Resistance   2.719%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 03, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are relatively higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.947% after closing at 2.967% prior.

Yesterday the FOMC announced to keep the current fed funds target rate unchanged as expected, acknowledging that the labor market has remained strong, and stated that it will continue monitoring the inflation outlook closely. Today’s busy economic calendar kicked off with the 1Q Nonfarm Productivity report which rose to 0.70% from 0.30% prior revised, while 1Q Unit Labor Costs jumped to 2.70% from 2.10% prior revised. Also on deck, the Trade Balance narrowed to $49.00 Billion deficit in March from a revised $57.70 Billion deficit prior.

The final reading of the Markit US Services PMI for April came in slightly above expectations at 54.60 versus 54.50 per consensus, and the final reading of the Markit US Composite PMI came in at 54.90, slightly higher than the prior reading of 54.80. Further, the April ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite came in below expectations at 56.80 versus 58.00 per consensus. Lastly, we received the March Factory Orders print which rose above expectations at 1.60% versus 1.40% per consensus, while March Durable Goods Orders rose 2.60% following a 2.60% increase prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.0 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/30 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  04/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%  
                   
  04/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% 1.70%  
                   
  04/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Mar 1.90% 1.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 0.70% 0.40% 3.10% 2.80%  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar - -4.40% -4.40% -4.70%  
                   
  04/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 23.00 21.80 21.40 22.80  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 56.50 56.50 56.50 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.50% -1.70% 0.10% 1.00%  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 58.50 57.30 59.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 78.50 79.30 78.10 -  
                   
  05/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Apr - -2.50% -0.20% -  
                   
  05/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 198k 204k 241k 228k  
                   
  05/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 2 May 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% -  
                   
  05/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 2 May 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  05/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - -1.40% 39.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 0.90% 0.70% 0.00% 0.30%  
                   
  05/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Apr 225k 211k 209k -  
                   
  05/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Apr 1835k 1756k 1837k 1833k  
                   
  05/03 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 3.00% 2.70% 2.50% 2.10%  
                   
  05/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Mar -$50.00b -$49.00b -$57.60b -$57.70b  
                   
  05/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Apr - 56.50 57.50 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 54.50 54.60 54.40 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - 54.90 54.80 -  
                   
  05/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - 2.60% 2.60% -  
                   
  05/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.40% 1.60% 1.20% 1.60%  
                   
  05/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 193k - 103k -  
                   
  05/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 4.00% - 4.10% -  
                   
  05/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  05/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  05/04 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 62.90% - 62.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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