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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-26.5 (+04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-31.5 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.457%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, May 03, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower after the Jobs Report
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries advancing across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.5142, 2.72 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.5414.

Today’s strong jobs report in April supported the Fed’s plan to remain patient on any rate moves and US stock index futures advanced on the data. Treasuries also erased losses from earlier and the dollar remained steady. In corporate news, Amazon surged after the news that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been buying Amazon shares. Tesla also rose after raising $2.35 billion through debt and stock offerings. As corporate earnings season continues, HSBC Holdings reported its best quarter results in three years. Elsewhere, WTI crude steadied and continued to trade slightly below $62 a barrel this morning.

Nonfarm Payrolls in April increased 263k above the consensus of 190k, following a downwardly revised reading of 189k in March. Today’s strong data confirmed the recovery we saw in prior month and the data might not be distorted by the effect of the government shutdown anymore. Unemployment rate fell to 3.60% from 3.80% prior below consensus of 3.80%, reaching the lowest level since December 1969. Wholesale Inventories in March stayed flat below consensus of 0.20%, following a downwardly revised prior of 0.10%. Both Markit US Servicing PMI and Composite PMI printed 53.00, following prior readings of 52.90 and 52.80, respectively. Lastly, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.50 from 56.10 prior vs. 57.00 consensus. Later today, Fed Vice Chairman Clarida, New York Fed President Williams, and Fed Governor Bowman will speak at Hoover Institute Policy Conference in Stanford, California.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.72 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/29 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.70% 0.90% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.20% - 0.10%  
                   
  04/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 1.60% 1.50% - 1.30%  
                   
  04/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 10.00 2.00 8.30 6.90  
                   
  04/30 Employment Cost index  05:30 1Q 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% -  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.11% 0.09%  
                   
  04/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Feb 2.95% 3.00% 3.58% 3.51%  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 1.50% 3.80% -1.00% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar -4.00% -3.20% -5.00% -  
                   
  05/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Apr - -4.30% -7.30% -  
                   
  05/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 180k 275k 129k 151k  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.40 52.60 52.40 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 55.00 52.80 55.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 55.00 50.00 54.30 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.00% -0.90% 1.00% 0.70%  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  05/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 May 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% -  
                   
  05/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - 10.90% 0.40% -  
                   
  05/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 2.20% 3.60% 1.90% 1.30%  
                   
  05/02 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 1.50% -0.90% 2.00% 2.50%  
                   
  05/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Apr 215k 230k 230k -  
                   
  05/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Apr 1660k 1671k 1655k 1654k  
                   
  05/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Apr - 60.40 60.80 -  
                   
  05/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.60% 1.90% -0.50% -0.30%  
                   
  05/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - 2.60% 2.70% -  
                   
  05/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Mar P 0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  05/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 190k 263k 196k 189k  
                   
  05/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 3.80% 3.60% 3.80% -  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  05/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 3.30% 3.20% 3.20% -  
                   
  05/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 63.00% 62.80% 63.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.90 53.00 52.90 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - 53.00 52.80 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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