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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-31.5 (-16)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-15 (-08.5)  
 
  Support   2.365%  
 
  Resistance   2.277%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 4, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.354% after closing at 2.319% prior.

Yesterday the FOMC meeting concluded with a unanimous vote to hold the rates steady, but the probability for a June rate hike further increased from comments released by the Committee.

This morning we received the March U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, showing the deficit at $43.70 Billion, down $0.10 Billion from an upwardly revised $43.80 Billion in February. Nonfarm Productivity showed a slump in the first quarter, falling -0.60% from an upwardly revised 1.80% prior, showing a cutback in the amount of goods and services made available to customers. Initial Jobless Claims fell 19k to 238k in the week ending on April 29th from 257k prior, and Continuing Claims for the week ending on April 22nd came in at 1964k versus a downwardly revised 1987k prior. The March Factory Orders slipped to 0.20% after an upwardly revised 1.20% in February, and Durable Goods Orders jumped to 0.90% from 0.70% prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 3.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/01 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  05/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.20% 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  05/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar -0.20% -0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  05/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 1.90% 1.80% 2.10% -  
                   
  05/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Mar -0.10% -0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  05/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Mar 1.60% 1.60% 1.80% -  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.80 52.80 52.80 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 56.50 54.80 57.20 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.40% -0.20% 0.80% 1.80%  
                   
  05/02 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Apr - -0.10% 2.70% -  
                   
  05/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 175k 177k 263k 255k  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 52.50 53.10 52.50 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - 53.20 52.70 -  
                   
  05/03 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 3 May 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -  
                   
  05/03 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 3 May 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% -  
                   
  05/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - -42.90% -2.00% -  
                   
  05/04 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P -0.10% -0.60% 1.30% 1.80%  
                   
  05/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Apr 248k 238k 257k -  
                   
  05/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Apr 1990k 1964k 1988k 1987k  
                   
  05/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Apr - 50.90 50.80 -  
                   
  05/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 0.40% 0.20% 1.00% 1.20%  
                   
  05/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F 0.70% 0.90% 0.70% -  
                   
  05/04 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - 0.00% -0.20% -  
                   
  05/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 190k - 98k -  
                   
  05/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 4.60% - 4.50% -  
                   
  05/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 2.70% - 2.70% -  
                   
  05/05 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Apr - - 8.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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