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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-11.5 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-09.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.026%  
 
  Resistance   2.719%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, May 04, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly higher across the curve this morning from the close of yesterday’s session. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.938% after closing at 2.947% prior.

Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of April rose 164k following an upwardly revised 135k increase prior, falling 29k short of an expected 193k gain per consensus. Private Payrolls for April also came in below expectations at 168k versus 190k per consensus, but produced an increase of 33k from an upwardly revised 135k prior. Manufacturing Payrolls for April posted a solid 24k gain following a 22k addition prior, besting an expected 20k increase per consensus. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.10% prior to 3.90% in April, signaling a continued strengthening in the labor market.

Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month rose less than expected at 0.10% versus 0.20% per consensus. Further, the March earnings data was downwardly revised from 0.30% to 0.20%, bringing the Average Hourly Earnings year-over-year to 2.60% versus an expected 2.70% per consensus. Lastly on the calendar today are several Fed speeches from Fed Dudley in New York, while Fed Williams, Quarles, George, Bostic and Kaplan speak at the Hoover Institution Policy Conference in San Francisco.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.9 bp from prior closing.

Have A Lovely Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  04/30 Personal Income 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  04/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Mar 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00%  
                   
  04/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Mar 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% 1.70%  
                   
  04/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Mar 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  04/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Mar 1.90% 1.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Mar 0.70% 0.40% 3.10% 2.80%  
                   
  04/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Mar - -4.40% -4.40% -4.70%  
                   
  04/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Apr 23.00 21.80 21.40 22.80  
                   
  05/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Apr F 56.50 56.50 56.50 -  
                   
  05/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Mar 0.50% -1.70% 0.10% 1.00%  
                   
  05/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Apr 58.50 57.30 59.30 -  
                   
  05/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Apr 78.50 79.30 78.10 -  
                   
  05/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Apr - -2.50% -0.20% -  
                   
  05/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Apr 198k 204k 241k 228k  
                   
  05/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 2 May 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% -  
                   
  05/02 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 2 May 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  05/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Apr - -1.40% 39.40% -  
                   
  05/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 1Q P 0.90% 0.70% 0.00% 0.30%  
                   
  05/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Apr 225k 211k 209k -  
                   
  05/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Apr 1835k 1756k 1837k 1833k  
                   
  05/03 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 1Q P 3.00% 2.70% 2.50% 2.10%  
                   
  05/03 Trade Balance 05:30 Mar -$50.00b -$49.00b -$57.60b -$57.70b  
                   
  05/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Apr - 56.50 57.50 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Apr F 54.50 54.60 54.40 -  
                   
  05/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Apr F - 54.90 54.80 -  
                   
  05/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Mar F - 2.60% 2.60% -  
                   
  05/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Mar F - 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  05/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Mar 1.40% 1.60% 1.20% 1.60%  
                   
  05/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Apr 193k 164k 103k 135k  
                   
  05/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Apr 4.00% 3.90% 4.10% -  
                   
  05/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  05/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Apr 2.70% 2.60% 2.70% 2.60%  
                   
  05/04 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Apr 63.00% 62.80% 62.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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