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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-07.5 (+09)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-05 (+07.5)  
 
  Support   3.026%  
 
  Resistance   2.719%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 10, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from the close of yesterday’s session. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.967% after closing at 2.995% prior.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 5th which came in below expectations at 211k versus 219k per consensus. Continuing Claims for the week ended April 28th rose 30k to 1790k from an upwardly revised 1760k the week prior. We also received April’s CPI inflation report showing that headline CPI rose lower than expected at 0.20% versus 0.30% per consensus. The core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, also rose below expectations month-over-month at 0.10% versus 0.20% per consensus, reducing chances that inflation will run significantly above the Fed’s target. Headline CPI is now at 2.50% year-over-year, up from 2.40% prior, while core CPI remained unchanged from prior at 2.10% year-over-year.

Average Weekly Earnings year-over-year rose just 0.40% in April versus an increase of 0.90% prior, while Average Hourly Earnings year-over-year rose 0.20% following a downwardly revised increase of 0.30% prior. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), Treasury will auction $17 Billion 30-Year Bonds. Then at 11:00 AM (PT), the Monthly Budget Statement for April will be released where a $212 Billion surplus is expected.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.8 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/07 Consumer Credit 12:00 Mar $15.200b $11.622b $10.601b $13.639b  
                   
  05/08 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Apr 104.50 104.80 104.70 -  
                   
  05/08 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Mar 6100 6550 6052 6078  
                   
  05/09 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 4 May - -0.40% -2.50% -  
                   
  05/09 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% -  
                   
  05/09 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Apr 2.80% 2.60% 3.00% -  
                   
  05/09 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Mar - 0.30% 1.00% 1.10%  
                   
  05/09 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Mar F 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% -  
                   
  05/10 CPI MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% 0.20% -0.10% -  
                   
  05/10 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 5 May 219k 211k 211k -  
                   
  05/10 Continuing Claims 05:30 28 Apr 1800k 1790k 1756k 1760k  
                   
  05/10 CPI YoY 05:30 Apr 2.50% 2.50% 2.40% -  
                   
  05/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 6 May - 55.80 56.50 -  
                   
  05/10 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Apr $212.00b - -$208.70b -  
                   
  05/11 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Apr 0.50% - 0.00% -  
                   
  05/11 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Apr 3.90% - 3.60% -  
                   
  05/11 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Apr 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  05/11 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Apr - - 3.40% -  
                   
  05/11 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 May P 98.30 - 98.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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