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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-16 (-13)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-20 (-08)  
 
  Support   3.058%  
 
  Resistance   2.750%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, May 15, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.057% after closing at 3.003% prior.

Treasuries sold-off into the close of yesterday’s session and continued the trend overnight. This morning we received the Retail Sales data for April, which rose 0.30% month-over-month following an upwardly revised 0.80% increase in March. Retail Sales excluding Auto increased 0.30% for the month following an upwardly revised 0.40% rise in March, while Retail Sales excluding Auto and Gas reported a 0.30% increase following an upwardly revised 0.40% rise prior. The solid retail sales data pushed Treasuries further down to its lowest level since 2011.

The New York Fed’s regional report on manufacturing activity increased from 15.80 in April to 20.10 in May as the Empire Manufacturing data rose above an expected 15.00 reading per consensus. We also received the May NAHB Housing Market Index which rose to 70.00 following a downwardly revised 68.00 reading prior, marking its first increase since December. Later at 1:00 PM (PT), both the Total Net TIC Flows and Net Long-term TIC Flows for the month of March will be released.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 5.4 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/14 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 May 15.00 20.10 15.80 -  
                   
  05/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  05/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Mar 0.10% 0.00% 0.60% -  
                   
  05/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 May 69.00 70.00 69.00 68.00  
                   
  05/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Mar - - $44.70b -  
                   
  05/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Mar - - $49.00b -  
                   
  05/16 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 11 May - - -0.40% -  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Apr 1310k - 1319k -  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Apr -0.70% - 1.90% -  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits 05:30 Apr 1350k - 1354k 1379k  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Apr -2.10% - 2.50% 4.40%  
                   
  05/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Apr 0.60% - 0.50% -  
                   
  05/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Apr 78.40% - 78.00% -  
                   
  05/17 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 12 May 215k - 211k -  
                   
  05/17 Continuing Claims 05:30 5 May 1780k - 1790k -  
                   
  05/17 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 May 21.00 - 23.20 -  
                   
  05/17 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 13 May - - 55.80 -  
                   
  05/17 Leading Index 07:00 Apr 0.40% - 0.30% -  
                   
  05/18 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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