Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-31 (+10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-12 (+04.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.363%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Decline after Disappointing Economic Data
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.3715, 3.89 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.4104.

US equity futures pointed to a lower open this morning, erasing yesterday’s short-lived relief as weak data out of the US and China rattled investors over concerns about the health of the global economy. Retail sales in the US missed consensus, and industrial output, retail sales, and investment in China also slowed more than the forecasts. Treasuries reacted to the weak data by surging this morning, sending the 2-Year yield to the lowest level since February 2018. Along with the disappointing data, trade induced concerns kept investors away from risky assets. President Trump tweeted yesterday that the US is in a “much better position now than any deal we could have made”. Elsewhere, WTI crude declined as a report indicating a jump in US stockpiles eased concerns over the global supply.

MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.60% last week after rising 2.70% in prior week. Both purchases and refinances declined 0.60% and 0.50% after rising 4.20% and 0.80% in prior week. Empire Manufacturing in May surged to 17.80 above consensus of 8.00, following 10.10 in April. The headline Retail Sales in April declined to -0.20% from an upwardly revised prior of 1.70% vs. 0.20% consensus. The core also fell to 0.10% from an upwardly revised prior of 1.30% vs. 0.70% consensus. Industrial Production in April dropped as well to -0.50% from revised prior of 0.20% and Capacity Utilization inched lower to 77.90% from revised prior of 78.50%. Lastly, NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 66.00 from 63.00 prior vs. 64.00 consensus.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.89 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/13 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 02:03 Apr 102.00 103.50 101.80 -  
                   
  05/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Apr 0.70% 0.20% 0.60% -  
                   
  05/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Apr 0.30% -0.20% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  05/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Apr 0.60% 0.20% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  05/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Apr - 0.30% 0.60% -  
                   
  05/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 May - -0.60% 2.70% -  
                   
  05/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% -0.20% 1.60% 1.70%  
                   
  05/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 May 8.00 17.80 10.10 -  
                   
  05/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Apr 0.00% -0.50% -0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  05/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Apr 78.70% 77.90% 78.80% 78.50%  
                   
  05/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 May 64.00 66.00 63.00 -  
                   
  05/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% -  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Apr 1209k - 1139k -  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Apr 6.20% - -0.30% -  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits 05:30 Apr 1290k - 1269k 1288k  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Apr 1.70% - -1.70% -0.20%  
                   
  05/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 May 9.00 - 8.50 -  
                   
  05/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 May 220k - 228k -  
                   
  05/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 May 1675k - 1684k -  
                   
  05/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 May - - 59.80 -  
                   
  05/17 Leading Index 07:00 Apr 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/17 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 May P 97.20 - 97.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved