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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-01 (-0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   98-07 (00)  
 
  Support   3.102%  
 
  Resistance   2.761%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 17, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are slightly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 3.099% after closing at 3.097% prior.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 12th which rose 11k to 222k from 211k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended May 5th fell 87k to 1707k from an upwardly revised 1794k the week prior. Continuing Claims came in well below expectations as consensus called for 1780k. We also received the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for the month of May which came in with a much higher than expected reading of 34.40 versus 21.00 per consensus. Lastly, we received the Leading Index for April which came in as expected at 0.40%; March reading was upwardly revised from 0.30% to 0.40%.

In Fed Speak, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Kaplan will both participate in a moderated Q&A session later this morning. So far, the resounding hawkish tone this week from several Fed Officials, including San Francisco Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have pushed yields higher across the curve as investors price in a faster pace of Fed rate increases.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.2 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/14 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 May 15.00 20.10 15.80 -  
                   
  05/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  05/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Mar 0.10% 0.00% 0.60% -  
                   
  05/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 May 69.00 70.00 69.00 68.00  
                   
  05/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Mar - - $44.70b -  
                   
  05/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Mar - - $49.00b -  
                   
  05/16 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 11 May - -2.70% -0.40% -  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Apr 1310k 1287k 1319k 1336k  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Apr -0.70% -3.70% 1.90% 3.60%  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits 05:30 Apr 1350k 1352k 1354k 1377k  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Apr -2.10% -1.80% 2.50% 4.10%  
                   
  05/16 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Apr 0.60% 0.70% 0.50% 0.70%  
                   
  05/16 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Apr 78.40% 78.00% 78.00% 77.60%  
                   
  05/17 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 12 May 215k 222k 211k -  
                   
  05/17 Continuing Claims 05:30 5 May 1780k 1707k 1790k 1794k  
                   
  05/17 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 May 21.00 34.40 23.20 -  
                   
  05/17 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 13 May - 54.60 55.80 -  
                   
  05/17 Leading Index 07:00 Apr 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  05/18 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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