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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-29.5 (+03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-09 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.356%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, May 17, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Steady as Trade Tensions Linger
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.3909, 0.35 bp decreased from prior closing of 2.3944.

Trade tensions between the US and China continued to dominate investor sentiment this morning as US equity index futures pointed to lower open. China’s benchmark equity index tumbled and posted its longest weekly losing streak since July 2018 after local media reported that China has little interest in resuming trade talks with the US as long as Washington continues to threaten with more tariffs. Stock index futures briefly pared losses after the Trump administration announced the delay of any tariffs on car imports from Europe and Japan by six months. In the UK, British Prime Minister May was forced to agree to set a timeline to quit as leader. She will try one more time to get her Brexit deal approved in a vote in Parliament in June but leave her position regardless of the outcome of the vote. Elsewhere, WTI crude extended gains above $63 a barrel this morning.

Leading Index in April came in line with consensus of 0.20%, following a downwardly revised prior of 0.30%. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sharply exceeded consensus of 97.20 at 102.40, following 97.20 prior. A couple of Fed speeches are also scheduled for today. New York Fed President Williams will join a meeting of local community and business leaders and Fed Vice Chair Clarida will speak at a “Fed Listens” event in Philadelphia on the review of its monetary policy strategy, tools and communication practices.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.35 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/13 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 02:03 Apr 102.00 103.50 101.80 -  
                   
  05/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Apr 0.70% 0.20% 0.60% -  
                   
  05/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Apr 0.30% -0.20% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  05/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Apr 0.60% 0.20% 0.70% 0.60%  
                   
  05/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Apr - 0.30% 0.60% -  
                   
  05/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 May - -0.60% 2.70% -  
                   
  05/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% -0.20% 1.60% 1.70%  
                   
  05/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 May 8.00 17.80 10.10 -  
                   
  05/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Apr 0.00% -0.50% -0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  05/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Apr 78.70% 77.90% 78.80% 78.50%  
                   
  05/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 May 64.00 66.00 63.00 -  
                   
  05/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Mar 0.00% 0.00% 0.30% -  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Apr 1209k 1235k 1139k 1168k  
                   
  05/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Apr 6.20% 5.70% -0.30% 1.70%  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits 05:30 Apr 1289k 1296k 1269k 1288k  
                   
  05/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Apr 0.10% 0.60% -1.70% -0.20%  
                   
  05/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 May 9.00 16.60 8.50 -  
                   
  05/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 May 220k 212k 228k -  
                   
  05/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 May 1673k 1660k 1684k 1688k  
                   
  05/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 May - 59.90 59.80 -  
                   
  05/17 Leading Index 07:00 Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%  
                   
  05/17 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 May P 97.20 102.40 97.20 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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