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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-07 (+07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-03.5 (+06.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.812%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 24, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.969% after closing at 2.994% prior.

Yesterday Treasuries rallied from mid-session into the close as investors digested the FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s May policy meeting as more dovish than expected. Despite the recent firming in inflation, there was still uncertainty surrounding its outlook as Fed Officials deemed that “it was premature to conclude that inflation would remain at levels around 2 percent”. Nevertheless, the Minutes signaled that an interest rate hike is still probable at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting in June.

This morning we received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 19 which rose 11k to 234k from an upwardly revised 223k prior. Continuing Claims for the week ended May 12 rose 29k to 1741k from an upwardly revised 1712k prior. We also received the March FHFA House Price Index which rose 0.10% month-over-month following a 0.80% increase in February; consensus called for a 0.60% increase. Lastly, we received the Existing Home Sales for April which fell 2.50% to 5.46m rate month-over-month after increasing 1.10% to 5.60m in March. Later today at 10:00 AM (PT), Treasury will auction $30 billion 7-Year Notes.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Apr 0.30 0.34 0.10 0.32  
                   
  05/22 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 May 10.00 16.00 -3.00 -  
                   
  05/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 18 May - -2.60% -2.70% -  
                   
  05/23 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 May P 56.50 56.60 56.50 -  
                   
  05/23 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 May P 55.00 55.70 54.60 -  
                   
  05/23 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 May P - 55.70 54.90 -  
                   
  05/23 New Home Sales 07:00 Apr 680k 662k 694k 672k  
                   
  05/23 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr -2.10% -1.50% 4.00% 2.00%  
                   
  05/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 2 May - - - -  
                   
  05/24 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 19 May 220K 234k 222K 223k  
                   
  05/24 Continuing Claims 05:30 12 May 1746k 1741k 1707k 1712k  
                   
  05/24 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Mar 0.60% 0.10% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  05/24 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 20 May - 55.20 54.60 -  
                   
  05/24 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Apr 5.55m 5.46m 5.60m -  
                   
  05/24 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr -0.90% -2.50% 1.10% -  
                   
  05/24 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 May 20.00 - 26.00 -  
                   
  05/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Apr P -1.30% - 2.60% -  
                   
  05/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Apr P 0.50% - 0.10% -  
                   
  05/25 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 May F 98.80 - 98.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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