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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-26 (+11.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-16 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.273%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Reaches a 17-Month Low on Trade Concerns
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.2851, 3.51 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.3202.

Stocks steadied as the trade tensions continued to weigh on equity markets and traders remained cautious after the long weekend, and 10-Year Treasury yield fell to the lowest level since October 2017 after President Trump declared Monday that the US was “not ready” to make a deal with China. He also said that tariffs on Chinese imports could go up “very, very substantially, very easily”. The offshore yuan weakened after the Chinese government’s first seizure of a bank in more than two decades reverberated through markets. Elsewhere, WTI crude nudged above $59 a barrel.

FHFA House Price Index in March inched lower to 0.10% from an upwardly revised prior of 0.40% vs. 0.20% consensus. S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Home Composite Price Index rose 0.09% MoM and 2.68% YoY in March, marking the slowest YoY pace of price gains since August 2012. Conference Board Consumer Confidence in May improved to 134.10 from 129.20 prior. Lastly, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity slid to -5.30 from 2.00 prior vs. 6.20 consensus. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $36 billion of 6-month bills and $40 billion of 2-year notes at 8:30 AM (PT), and $36 billion of 3-month bills and $41 billion of 5-year notes at 10 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.51 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/27 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/28 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Mar 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  05/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.46% 0.09% 0.20% 0.26%  
                   
  05/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 2.50% 2.68% 3.00% 2.95%  
                   
  05/28 Dallas Fed ManfActivity 07:30 May 6.20 -5.30 2.00 -  
                   
  05/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 May - - 2.40% -  
                   
  05/29 Richmond Fed ManufactIndex 07:00 May 7.00 - 3.00 -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S 3.00% - 3.20% -  
                   
  05/30 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Apr P 0.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  05/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S 1.20% - 1.20% -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 0.90% - 0.90% -  
                   
  05/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 1.30% - 1.30% -  
                   
  05/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 May 215k - 211k -  
                   
  05/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 May 1667k - 1676k -  
                   
  05/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 May - - 60.30 -  
                   
  05/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr 0.50% - 3.80% -  
                   
  05/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Apr 0.10% - -3.20% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Income 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr 0.20% - 0.90% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator MoM 06:45 12 May 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Apr 1.60% - 1.50% -  
                   
  05/31 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 May F 101.00 - 102.40 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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