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Market Commentary


 
 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-11.5 (+01)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-16 (00)  
 
  Support   2.266%  
 
  Resistance   0.594%  
 
 
 
 
  Thursday, May 28, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Remain Flat as Equities Struggle

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries drifting across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.6884, 0.65 bp increased from prior closing of 0.6819.

Another 2.123 million American filed for unemployment benefits last week but Continuing Claims fell for the first time during the pandemic to 21.052 million from a downwardly revised prior of 24.912 million. Both the headline and core Durable Goods Orders beat consensus of -19.00% and -15.00% at -17.20% and -7.40%, respectively. Personal Consumptions also improved to -6.80% from -7.60%; all adding to signs that the worst of the economic blow from the pandemic has passed. Stocks, however, struggled to advance as tech shares remained under pressure as investors ditched the cohort. Tensions between the US and China flared again, dampening the sentiment as Chinese lawmakers approved a proposal for sweeping new national security legislation in Hong Kong despite a threat of retaliation from President Trump. Treasuries and mortgages remained nearly unchanged while WTI crude hovered below $33 a barrel after a report raised concerns about excess supply again. In the remainder of the economic calendar, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort rose to 35.50 from 34.70 prior and sales of existing houses in the US sunk 21.80% to a record low from -20.80% prior vs. -17.30% consensus, marking the sharpest decline since May 2010.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.65 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Apr -3.50 -16.74 -4.19 -4.97  
                   
  05/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Mar 0.50% 0.10% 0.70% 0.80%  
                   
  05/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.30% 0.47% 0.45% 0.52%  
                   
  05/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 3.44% 3.92% 3.47% 3.52%  
                   
  05/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 May -61.00 -49.20 -73.70 -  
                   
  05/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 May - 2.70% -2.60% -  
                   
  05/27 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 May -40.00 -27.00 -53.00 -  
                   
  05/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S -4.80% -5.00% -4.80% -  
                   
  05/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S -7.50% -6.80% -7.60% -  
                   
  05/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 1.30% 1.40% 1.30% -  
                   
  05/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 1.80% 1.60% 1.80% -  
                   
  05/28 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Apr P -19.00% -17.20% -14.70% -16.60%  
                   
  05/28 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Apr P -15.00% -7.40% -0.40% -1.70%  
                   
  05/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 May 2100k 2123k 2438k 2446k  
                   
  05/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 May 25680k 21052k 25073k 24912k  
                   
  05/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 May - 35.50 34.70 -  
                   
  05/29 PCE Core Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr -0.30% - -0.10% -  
                   
  05/29 Personal Income 05:30 Apr -6.00% - -2.00% -  
                   
  05/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr -12.80% - -7.50% -  
                   
  05/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr -0.60% - -0.30% -  
                   
  05/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Apr 1.10% - 1.70% -  
                   
  05/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 May F 74.00 - 73.70 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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