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Market Commentary


 

 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-20 (+10)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-19 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   2.261%  
 
  Resistance   0.596%  
 
 
 
 
  Friday, May 29, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Lower as Equities Struggle ahead of Press Conference

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries edging higher across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.6754, 1.46 bps decreased from prior closing of 0.6900.

Stocks were mixed as the gain in tech sector offset a slump in banks on consumer spending data. Personal Spending declined by 13.60% marking the largest decline on record. The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook from the pandemic pushed the savings rate up to 33.0%, reaching the highest level on record. The previous peak was 17.3%, dated back in 1975. On the contrary, Personal Income surged by 10.50%; however, it was a result of the stimulus package while wages and salaries plummeted 8.00%. Another event dominated market sentiment is the press conference expected to be held later today by President Trump to address China’s recently approved national security bill for Hong Kong. Treasuries slightly advanced and WTI crude trimmed its biggest monthly again on record, trading slightly above $33 a barrel. In the remainder of the economic calendar, Wholesale Inventories rose to 0.40% from a downwardly revised prior of -1.00% vs. -0.70% consensus. MNI Chicago PMI in May fell to 32.30 from 35.40 prior vs. 40.00 consensus and lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment slightly inched lower to 72.30 from 73.70 prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.46 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Apr -3.50 -16.74 -4.19 -4.97  
                   
  05/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Mar 0.50% 0.10% 0.70% 0.80%  
                   
  05/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.30% 0.47% 0.45% 0.52%  
                   
  05/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 3.44% 3.92% 3.47% 3.52%  
                   
  05/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 May -61.00 -49.20 -73.70 -  
                   
  05/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 May - 2.70% -2.60% -  
                   
  05/27 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 May -40.00 -27.00 -53.00 -  
                   
  05/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S -4.80% -5.00% -4.80% -  
                   
  05/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S -7.50% -6.80% -7.60% -  
                   
  05/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 1.30% 1.40% 1.30% -  
                   
  05/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 1.80% 1.60% 1.80% -  
                   
  05/28 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Apr P -19.00% -17.20% -14.70% -16.60%  
                   
  05/28 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Apr P -15.00% -7.40% -0.40% -1.70%  
                   
  05/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 May 2100k 2123k 2438k 2446k  
                   
  05/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 May 25680k 21052k 25073k 24912k  
                   
  05/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 May - 35.50 34.70 -  
                   
  05/29 PCE Core Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr -0.30% -0.40% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  05/29 Personal Income 05:30 Apr -5.90% 10.50% -2.00% -2.20%  
                   
  05/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr -12.80% -13.60% -7.50% -6.90%  
                   
  05/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr -0.60% -0.50% -0.30% -0.20%  
                   
  05/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Apr 0.50% 0.50% 1.30% -  
                   
  05/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 May F 74.00 72.30 73.70 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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