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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-13.5 (-10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-25.5 (-06.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are modestly lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.820% after closing at 2.782% prior.

Treasuries sold-off overnight and into the open as the Italian political crisis somewhat subsided. Some investors saw yesterday’s sell-off of Italian bonds as overdone, although the expected snap Italian elections still looms. This morning we received the ADP Employment Change for May which rose less than expected at 178k versus 190k per consensus; April’s Employment Change was downwardly revised from 204k to 163k. We also received the second estimate of 1Q GDP Growth, which reflected a downward revision of 2.20% from 2.30% prior. Personal Consumption came in below expectations at 1.00% versus 1.20% per consensus, while GDP Price Index also came in below expectations at 1.90% versus 2.00% per consensus. Core PCE quarter-over-quarter estimate is down to 2.30% from 2.50% prior.

MBA Mortgage Applications continues its downward trend as it fell 2.90% for the week ended May 25 after dropping 2.60% in activities the week prior. Purchase applications fell 1.90% after decreasing by 2.00% the week prior, while refinancing activities fell 4.70% following a 3.70% drop the week prior. This marks the sixth consecutive week of decreased mortgage application activities. Later today at 11:00 AM (PT), the U.S. Federal Reserve will release its latest Beige Book.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.8 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/28 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.75% 0.53% 0.83% 0.84%  
                   
  05/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 6.45% 6.79% 6.80% 6.76%  
                   
  05/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 May 23.80 26.80 21.80 -  
                   
  05/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 May - -2.90% -2.60% -  
                   
  05/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 May 190k 178k 204k 163k  
                   
  05/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% -  
                   
  05/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S 1.20% 1.00% 1.10% -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% -  
                   
  05/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 2.50% 2.30% 2.50% -  
                   
  05/30 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Apr P 0.50% 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  05/30 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  05/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 May - - -1.40% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Income 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.30% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 May 228k - 234k -  
                   
  05/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 May 1733k - 1741k -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% - 0.00% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Apr 2.00% - 2.00% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Apr 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Apr 1.80% - 1.90% -  
                   
  05/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 May - - 55.20 -  
                   
  05/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  05/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Apr - - -4.40% -  
                   
  06/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 May 190k - 164k -  
                   
  06/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 May 3.90% - 3.90% -  
                   
  06/01 Underemployment Rate 05:30 May - - 7.80% -  
                   
  06/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  06/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 May 2.60% - 2.60% -  
                   
  06/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 May - - 62.80% -  
                   
  06/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 May F 56.60 - 56.60 -  
                   
  06/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Apr 0.80% - -1.70% -  
                   
  06/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 May 58.20 - 57.30 -  
                   
  06/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 May 78.00 - 79.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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