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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-30 (-02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-18.5 (+02)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.212%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 30, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Remain Steady as Recession Concerns Ease
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.2710, 1.05 bps increased from prior closing of 2.2605.

US stocks were slightly higher this morning after back-to-back losses as investors digested the latest economic data on American growth; however, the protracted trade war continued to weigh on markets. China is reportedly gearing up to use its dominance in the global supply of rare-earth elements as a counter to US trade measures, and American military hardware including F-35 fighter jet will be at risk. Also, China has halted soy purchases from the US and the Shanghai Composite Index edged lower on the news. More on the trade front, it was reported that the talks between the US and its another major counterpart; the EU, had made a very little progress after they agreed a tariff truce ten months ago. Elsewhere, WTI crude rebounded after a report showing lower-than-expected US crude stockpiles.

The first quarter GDP inched lower to 3.10% from 3.20% prior but came in above consensus of 3.00%. Personal Consumption, however, edged higher to 1.30% vs. both prior reading and consensus of 1.20%. Initial Jobless Claims remained modest at 215k, following an upwardly revised prior of 212k. Continuing Claims also displayed a very little change as it printed 1657k below consensus of 1662k, following an upwardly revised prior of 1683k. Wholesale Inventories in April climbed 0.7% from a flat reading in prior period which was upwardly revised by 0.10%. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index came in higher at 60.80 from 60.30 prior. Lastly, Pending Home Sales in April slid to -1.50% from an upwardly revised prior of 3.90% vs. 0.50% consensus. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $40 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.05 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/27 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/28 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Mar 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  05/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.46% 0.09% 0.20% 0.26%  
                   
  05/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 2.50% 2.68% 3.00% 2.95%  
                   
  05/28 Dallas Fed ManfActivity 07:30 May 6.20 -5.30 2.00 -  
                   
  05/29 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 May - -3.30% 2.40% -  
                   
  05/29 Richmond Fed ManufactIndex 07:00 May 7.00 5.00 3.00 -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S 3.00% 3.10% 3.20% -  
                   
  05/30 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Apr P 0.10% 0.70% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  05/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S 1.20% 1.30% 1.20% -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 0.90% 0.80% 0.90% -  
                   
  05/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 1.30% 1.00% 1.30% -  
                   
  05/30 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 May 214k 215k 211k 212k  
                   
  05/30 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 May 1662k 1657k 1676k 1683k  
                   
  05/30 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 May - 60.80 60.30 -  
                   
  05/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr 0.50% -1.50% 3.80% 3.90%  
                   
  05/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Apr 0.10% 0.40% -3.20% -3.10%  
                   
  05/31 Personal Income 05:30 Apr 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr 0.20% - 0.90% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator MoM 06:45 12 May 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Apr 1.60% - 1.50% -  
                   
  05/31 U. of MichSentiment 07:00 May F 101.00 - 102.40 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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