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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-13 (+08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-23 (+02)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, May 31, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.834% after closing at 2.856% prior.

This morning the Trump administration announced that it will impose tariffs on steel and aluminum from key trading partners including the European Union, Mexico and Canada. U.S. stocks declined while Treasuries rose upon the announcement. Today’s busy economic calendar kicked off with the Personal Income data for April which rose as expected at 0.30% following a downwardly revised 0.20% increase in March. Personal Spending rose above expectations at 0.60% versus a 0.40% increase per consensus following an upwardly revised 0.50% increase in March. On the inflation side, the April PCE Deflator rose 0.20% month-over-month which came in line with expectations, keeping the PCE Deflator YoY unchanged at 2.00% from prior. PCE Core also rose 0.20% in April, keeping the PCE Core YoY unchanged at 1.80% from revised prior.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 26 fell 13k to 221k from 234k prior, while Continuing Claims for the week ended May 19 fell 16k to 1726k from a slightly revised 1742k prior. We also received the Chicago Purchasing Manager reading for May which came in above expectations at 62.70 versus 58.30 per consensus. Lastly, the April Pending Home Sales fell 1.30% month-over-month after an upwardly revised increase of 0.60% in March.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 2.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/28 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.75% 0.53% 0.83% 0.84%  
                   
  05/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 6.45% 6.79% 6.80% 6.76%  
                   
  05/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 May 23.80 26.80 21.80 -  
                   
  05/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 May - -2.90% -2.60% -  
                   
  05/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 May 190k 178k 204k 163k  
                   
  05/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% -  
                   
  05/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S 1.20% 1.00% 1.10% -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% -  
                   
  05/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 2.50% 2.30% 2.50% -  
                   
  05/30 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Apr P 0.50% 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  05/30 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  05/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 May - -4.80% -1.40% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Income 05:30 Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  05/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr 0.40% 0.60% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  05/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 May 228k 221k 234k -  
                   
  05/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 May 1733k 1726k 1741k 1742k  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Apr 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Apr 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Apr 1.80% 1.80% 1.90% 1.80%  
                   
  05/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 May - 55.20 55.20 -  
                   
  05/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr 0.40% -1.30% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  05/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Apr - 0.40% -4.40% -4.30%  
                   
  06/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 May 190k - 164k -  
                   
  06/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 May 3.90% - 3.90% -  
                   
  06/01 Underemployment Rate 05:30 May - - 7.80% -  
                   
  06/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  06/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 May 2.60% - 2.60% -  
                   
  06/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 May - - 62.80% -  
                   
  06/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 May F 56.60 - 56.60 -  
                   
  06/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Apr 0.80% - -1.70% -  
                   
  06/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 May 58.20 - 57.30 -  
                   
  06/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 May 78.00 - 79.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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