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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-25.5 (-10.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-12.5 (-05.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, June 01, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.909% after closing at 2.859% prior.

Treasuries fell to session lows this morning after the May employment reports and average hourly earnings increases came in better than expected. Nonfarm Payrolls rose 223k month-over-month versus an expected 190k increase per consensus following a downwardly revised 159k increase in April. Private Payrolls rose 218k month-over-month versus an expected 190k increase per consensus after a downwardly revised 162k rise prior. Unemployment Rate in May fell to 3.80% month-over-month from 3.90% in April. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.30% in May versus an estimated 0.20% rise per consensus after a slight 0.10% increase prior; Average Hourly Earnings jumped to 2.70% year-over-year from 2.60% prior.

We also received the final reading of the May Markit US Manufacturing PMI which came in slightly below expectations at 56.40 versus 56.60 per consensus. The April Construction Spending came in stronger than expected at 1.80% versus 0.80% per consensus after dropping 1.70% in March. Lastly, the May ISM Manufacturing reading bested expectations at 58.70 versus a 58.20 survey, while the ISM Prices Paid reading came in at 79.50 sustaining a strong reading level from 79.30 prior.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 5.0 bps from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  05/28 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  05/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Mar 0.75% 0.53% 0.83% 0.84%  
                   
  05/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Mar 6.45% 6.79% 6.80% 6.76%  
                   
  05/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 May 23.80 26.80 21.80 -  
                   
  05/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 May - -2.90% -2.60% -  
                   
  05/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 May 190k 178k 204k 163k  
                   
  05/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% -  
                   
  05/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q S 1.20% 1.00% 1.10% -  
                   
  05/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q S 2.00% 1.90% 2.00% -  
                   
  05/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q S 2.50% 2.30% 2.50% -  
                   
  05/30 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Apr P 0.50% 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  05/30 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  05/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 May - -4.80% -1.40% -  
                   
  05/31 Personal Income 05:30 Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  05/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Apr 0.40% 0.60% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  05/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 May 228k 221k 234k -  
                   
  05/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 May 1733k 1726k 1741k 1742k  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Apr 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Apr 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  05/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Apr 1.80% 1.80% 1.90% 1.80%  
                   
  05/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 May - 55.20 55.20 -  
                   
  05/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Apr 0.40% -1.30% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  05/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Apr - 0.40% -4.40% -4.30%  
                   
  06/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 May 190k 223k 164k 159k  
                   
  06/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 May 3.90% 3.80% 3.90% -  
                   
  06/01 Underemployment Rate 05:30 May - 7.60% 7.80% -  
                   
  06/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 May 0.20% 0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 May 2.60% 2.70% 2.60% -  
                   
  06/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 May - 62.70% 62.80% -  
                   
  06/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 May F 56.60 56.40 56.60 -  
                   
  06/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Apr 0.80% 1.80% -1.70% -  
                   
  06/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 May 58.20 58.70 57.30 -  
                   
  06/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 May 78.00 79.50 79.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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