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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-30 (-02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-29.5 (+01)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.062%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Slightly Rose as Stocks Extend Gains
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries slightly edging lower across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.1500, 0.16 bp increased from prior closing of 2.1484.

Investor sentiment cautiously started turning optimistic as trade concerns have somewhat eased and many now expects the Fed to lower interest rates soon. Stocks got a lift yesterday from President Trump’s decision to indefinitely suspend the 5.00% levy on Mexican imports over the weekend, and the news continued to reverberate through markets this morning. The Dow was poised to extend its seventh day gain, heading for its longest winning streak since May 2018. Chinese equities also rallied overnight after their local government may reportedly use bonds to finance infrastructure projects now which helped offsetting the threat from President Trump to impose tariffs of 25.00% or “much higher than 25.00%” on $300 billion in Chinese goods if Chinese President Xi does not meet with him at the G-20 summit. Elsewhere, WTI crude edged higher, trading slightly below $54 a barrel this morning.

NFIB Small Business Optimism in May rose to 105.00 from prior reading of 103.50, indicating the domestic economy remains relatively resilient from the ongoing uncertainties. The headline PPI Final Demand in May came in line with consensus of 0.10%, following 0.20% in April and the core also met the expectation of 0.20%, following 0.10% in April. However, the YoY change declined to 1.80% from 2.20% prior vs. 2.00% consensus. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $38 billion of 3-year notes at 10:00 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 0.16 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Apr 7496 7449 7488 7474  
                   
  06/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 May 102.00 105.00 103.50 -  
                   
  06/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 May 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  06/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 May 2.00% 1.80% 2.20% -  
                   
  06/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 7 Jun - - 1.50% -  
                   
  06/12 CPI MoM 05:30 May 0.10% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/12 CPI YoY 05:30 May 1.90% - 2.00% -  
                   
  06/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 May -$199.50b - -$146.80b -  
                   
  06/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 May -0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 May -1.20% - -0.20% -  
                   
  06/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 May -0.20% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 May - - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/13 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 8 Jun 215k - 218k -  
                   
  06/13 Continuing Claims 05:30 1 Jun 1668k - 1682k -  
                   
  06/13 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 9 Jun - - 61.70 -  
                   
  06/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 May 0.60% - -0.20% -  
                   
  06/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 May 0.20% - -0.50% -  
                   
  06/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 May 78.00% - 77.90% -  
                   
  06/14 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun P 98.00 - 100.00 -  
                   
  06/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Apr 0.50% - 0.00% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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