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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-12 (+07)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-00 (+05)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, June 14, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.954% after closing at 2.967% prior.

Yesterday the Feds announced the second rate hike of the year as expected, while providing a more hawkish tone for the outlook of future policy changes. The Fed dots shifted slightly higher to reflect an expectation of four total rate hikes for 2018, up from three rate hikes as previously projected. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the economy is in great shape, and noted that the recent inflation data have been encouraging. This morning the ECB kept their current interest rates unchanged as expected, but President Mario Draghi announced the ECB’s decision to end its bond-buying program by the end of this year.

The May Retail Sales Advance rose 0.80% month-over-month following an upwardly revised 0.40% increase in April. Retail Sales excluding Auto rose above expectations at 0.90% month-over-month versus a 0.50% increase per consensus following an upwardly revised 0.40% increase prior. Moreover, Retail Sales excluding Auto and Gas rose 0.80% month-over-month after showing a 0.30% increase in April. The May Import Price Index reported slightly higher than expected at 0.60% increase versus a 0.50% increase per consensus, bringing its year-over-year index up to 4.30% from an upwardly revised 3.60% prior. Export Price Index also rose above expectations at 0.60% versus a 0.30% increase per consensus, bringing its year-over-year index up to 4.90% from a downwardly revised 3.70%.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.3 bps from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  06/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 May 105.00 107.80 104.80 -  
                   
  06/12 CPI MoM 05:30 May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  06/12 CPI YoY 05:30 May 2.80% 2.80% 2.50% -  
                   
  06/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 May -$144.00b -$146.80b -$88.40b -  
                   
  06/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Jun - -1.50% 4.10% -  
                   
  06/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 May 0.30% 0.50% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 May 2.80% 3.10% 2.60% -  
                   
  06/13 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 13 Jun 2.00% 2.00% 1.75% -  
                   
  06/13 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 13 Jun 1.75% 1.75% 1.50% -  
                   
  06/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Jun 223k 218k 222k -  
                   
  06/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 May 0.40% 0.80% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  06/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Jun 1732k 1697k 1741k 1746k  
                   
  06/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 May 0.50% 0.60% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  06/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 May 3.90% 4.30% 3.30% 3.60%  
                   
  06/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 May 0.30% 0.60% 0.60% -  
                   
  06/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 May - 4.90% 3.80% 3.70%  
                   
  06/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Jun - 55.80 54.80 -  
                   
  06/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  06/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jun 19.00 - 20.10 -  
                   
  06/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 May 0.20% - 0.70% -  
                   
  06/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 May 78.10% - 78.00% -  
                   
  06/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun P 98.50 - 98.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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