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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-19.5 (+03)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-31 (-02)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.060%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, June 14, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Climb after Strong Retail Sales
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nearly unchanged across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0891, 0.54 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.0945.

US stocks fell and Treasuries erased overnight gains this morning, driven by chipmakers and economic data. Broadcom led the decline in the sector after posting weaker-than-expected revenue and cutting the guidance for 2019, citing trade war concerns. The decline in Treasury yields were erased by US retail sales data posting a broad-based gain in May, limiting the case for the Fed to cut its interest rates in the near term. Investor sentiment was also dampened by disappointing data out of China as its Industrial Production rose at the slowest pace of growth in 17 years. WTI crude steadied as investors monitored developments in the Middle East after the US assigned blame on Iran for Thursday’s suspected tanker attacks. Next week, the Fed will release its rate decision on Wednesday, followed by press conference with Fed Chair Powell.

Retail Sales in May advanced to 0.50%, following an upwardly revised prior of 0.30% while consensus called for 0.60%. The core also printed a 0.50% increase vs. consensus of 0.40%. Industrial production in May climbed to 0.40% after an upwardly revised prior of -0.40%. Capacity Utilization in May slightly edged higher at 78.10% from 77.90% prior and lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment printed 97.90 vs. 98.00 consensus and 100.00 prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.54 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/10 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Apr 7496 7449 7488 7474  
                   
  06/11 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 May 102.00 105.00 103.50 -  
                   
  06/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 May 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  06/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 May 2.00% 1.80% 2.20% -  
                   
  06/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 7 Jun - 26.80% 1.50% -  
                   
  06/12 CPI MoM 05:30 May 0.10% 0.10% 0.30% -  
                   
  06/12 CPI YoY 05:30 May 1.90% 1.80% 2.00% -  
                   
  06/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 May -$202.50b -207.80b -$146.80b -  
                   
  06/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 May -0.20% -0.30% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  06/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 May -1.20% -1.50% -0.20% -0.30%  
                   
  06/13 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 May -0.20% -0.20% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  06/13 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 May - -0.70% 0.30% 0.20%  
                   
  06/13 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 8 Jun 215k 222k 218k 219k  
                   
  06/13 Continuing Claims 05:30 1 Jun 1660k 1695k 1682k 1693k  
                   
  06/13 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 9 Jun - 61.60 61.70 -  
                   
  06/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 May 0.60% 0.50% -0.20% -0.30%  
                   
  06/14 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 May 0.20% 0.40% -0.50% -0.40%  
                   
  06/14 Capacity Utilization 06:15 May 78.00% 78.10% 77.90% -  
                   
  06/14 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun P 98.00 97.90 100.00 -  
                   
  06/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Apr 0.50% 0.50% 0.00% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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