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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   101-27.5 (-11)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-03 (-07)  
 
  Support   2.225%  
 
  Resistance   2.103%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, June 15, 2017
 
 
Treasuries are moderately lower across the curve this morning from yesterday's close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.155% after closing at 2.126% prior.

Yesterday the FOMC increased the funds target rate as expected, and outlined its plan to implement balance sheet normalization "relatively soon". This morning we received U.S. Import Prices for May, which declined 0.30% after a downwardly revised 0.20% increase in April; the decrease was driven mainly by lower fuel prices. U.S. Export Prices for May declined 0.70% following a 0.20% increase in April. We also received the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on June 10th, which fell 8k to 237k from 245k the week prior. Continuing Claims for the week ending on June 3rd rose 6k to 1935k from an upwardly revised 1929k the week prior.

The June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook came in at 27.60, down from 38.80 in May; consensus expected a 24.90 print. The Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 19.80 in June after slipping 1.00 in May. Industrial Production was unchanged in May at 0.00% after a slight upwardly revised 1.10% in April.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 2.9 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 May -$87.00b -$88.40b -$52.50b -  
                   
  06/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 May 104.50 104.50 104.50 -  
                   
  06/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 May 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% -  
                   
  06/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 May 2.30% 2.40% 2.50% -  
                   
  06/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Jun - 2.80% 7.10% -  
                   
  06/14 CPI MoM 05:30 May 0.00% -0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  06/14 CPI YoY 05:30 May 2.00% 1.90% 2.20% -  
                   
  06/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 May 0.00% -0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  06/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Apr -0.20% -0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  06/14 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 14 Jun 1.25% 1.25% 1.00% -  
                   
  06/14 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 14 Jun 1.00% 1.00% 0.75% -  
                   
  06/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 May -0.10% -0.30% 0.50% 0.20%  
                   
  06/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jun 5.00 19.80 -1.00 -  
                   
  06/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 May 2.90% 2.10% 4.10% 3.60%  
                   
  06/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Jun 241k 237k 245k -  
                   
  06/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Jun 1920k 1935k 1917k 1929k  
                   
  06/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jun 24.90 27.60 38.80 -  
                   
  06/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 May 0.20% 0.00% 1.00% 1.10%  
                   
  06/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 May 76.80% 76.60% 76.70% -  
                   
  06/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Jun - 50.00 49.90 -  
                   
  06/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jun 70.00 67.00 70.00 69.00  
                   
  06/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Apr - - -$0.70b -  
                   
  06/16 Housing Starts 05:30 May 1220k - 1172k -  
                   
  06/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 May 4.10% - -2.60% -  
                   
  06/16 Building Permits 05:30 May 1249k - 1229k 1228k  
                   
  06/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 May 1.80% - -2.50% -2.50%  
                   
  06/16 Labor Market Conditions Index Change 07:00 May 3.00 - 3.50 -  
                   
  06/16 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun P 97.10 - 97.10 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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