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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-25.5 (+10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-08.5 (+05.5)  
 
  Support   3.111%  
 
  Resistance   2.759%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, June 15, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher across the curve this morning from yesterday’s close. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.905% after closing at 2.936% prior.

Yesterday Treasuries rallied on the announcement of the European Central Bank to end its bond-buying program by the end of 2018 which sparked volatility in European assets. This morning, Treasury yields inched further down after President Trump announced tariffs on $50 Billion in Chinese imports while threatening to impose additional tariffs should China retaliate. China quickly vowed to strike back stating that it will also impose tariffs on imports from the U.S., reigniting fears of a trade war between two of the world’s biggest economies.

On the economic calendar, we received the June Empire Manufacturing which soared above expectations to its highest level in eight months at a reading of 25.00 versus 18.80 per consensus. Also on deck, we received the May Industrial Production report which fell 0.10% month-over-month following an upwardly revised 0.90% increase prior. Capacity Utilization also showed a slight drop month-over-month as the index came in at 77.90% from an upwardly revised 78.10% prior. Lastly, we received the June University of Michigan Sentiment which came in above expectations at 99.30 versus a reading level of 98.50 per consensus; prior reading remained unrevised at 98.00.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 3.1 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  06/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 May 105.00 107.80 104.80 -  
                   
  06/12 CPI MoM 05:30 May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  06/12 CPI YoY 05:30 May 2.80% 2.80% 2.50% -  
                   
  06/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 May -$144.00b -$146.80b -$88.40b -  
                   
  06/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Jun - -1.50% 4.10% -  
                   
  06/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 May 0.30% 0.50% 0.10% -  
                   
  06/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 May 2.80% 3.10% 2.60% -  
                   
  06/13 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 13 Jun 2.00% 2.00% 1.75% -  
                   
  06/13 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 13 Jun 1.75% 1.75% 1.50% -  
                   
  06/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Jun 223k 218k 222k -  
                   
  06/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 May 0.40% 0.80% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  06/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Jun 1732k 1697k 1741k 1746k  
                   
  06/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 May 0.50% 0.60% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  06/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 May 3.90% 4.30% 3.30% 3.60%  
                   
  06/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 May 0.30% 0.60% 0.60% -  
                   
  06/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 May - 4.90% 3.80% 3.70%  
                   
  06/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Jun - 55.80 54.80 -  
                   
  06/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Apr 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% -0.10%  
                   
  06/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jun 18.80 25.00 20.10 -  
                   
  06/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 May 0.20% -0.10% 0.70% 0.90%  
                   
  06/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 May 78.10% 77.90% 78.00% 78.10%  
                   
  06/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun P 98.50 99.30 98.00 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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