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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-13.5 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-27 (-02)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.060%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, June 17, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Slighltly Rose ahead of FOMC Meeting
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries nudging downward across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0994, 1.90 bps increased from prior closing of 2.0804.

Stocks swung between gains and losses while Treasuries edges slightly lower this morning as investors braced themselves for central bank policy this week. The FOMC will start its two-day meeting tomorrow. While expectations for any policy change this time are fairly low, their statements and the press conference with Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday will be carefully parsed by investors for any clues about potential rate cuts in July and later this year. In Hong Kong, equities rose after the government suspended a controversial extradition bill which resulted in violent clashes between protesters and the police last week. In trade front, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross reiterated that the prospect of a breakthrough is unlikely to emerge from a possible meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi at the G-20 summit in Osaka this month. Elsewhere, WTI crude declined, hovering $52 a barrel this morning.

Empire Manufacturing in June plunged to -8.60 from 17.80 in May while consensus called for 11.00, marking the lowest level since 2016. NAHB Housing Market Index in June also declined to 64.00 vs. 67.00 consensus, following a reading of 66.00 in May. Both Net Long-Term TIC Flows and Total Net TIC Flows from April will be released at 1:00 PM (PT). Also later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $36 billion of 3-month bills and $36 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.90 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/17 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jun 11.00 -8.60 17.80 -  
                   
  06/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jun 67.00 64.00 66.00 -  
                   
  06/18 Housing Starts 05:30 May 1240k - 1235k -  
                   
  06/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 May 0.40% - 5.70% -  
                   
  06/18 Building Permits 05:30 May 1293k - 1296k 1290k  
                   
  06/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.60% 0.20%  
                   
  06/19 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 14 Jun - - 26.80% -  
                   
  06/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 19 Jun 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  06/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 19 Jun 2.25% - 2.25% -  
                   
  06/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jun 10.70 - 16.60 -  
                   
  06/20 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 15 Jun 220k - 222k -  
                   
  06/20 Continuing Claims 05:30 8 Jun 1680k - 1695k -  
                   
  06/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 16 Jun - - 61.60 -  
                   
  06/20 Leading Index 07:00 May 0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  06/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jun P 50.50 - 50.50 -  
                   
  06/21 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jun P 51.00 - 50.90 -  
                   
  06/21 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jun P - - 50.90 -  
                   
  06/21 Existing Home Sales 07:00 May 5.26m - 5.19m -  
                   
  06/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 1.40% - -0.40% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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