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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-00 (+06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-05 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   1.975%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, June 24, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower as Geopolitical Risks Mount
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 2.0366, 1.74 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.0540.

Both US equity futures and Treasuries climbed this morning as investors looked ahead for the high-stakes meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi at the G-20 summit in Japan later this week. However, with only a few days left before the meeting, the US put five more Chinese tech entities on a trade blacklist. Investors also weighed mounting geopolitical risks as the White House threatened Iran with additional sanctions which sent WTI crude north, trading above $57 a barrel this morning. However, the issue with this plan is that there is very little of the Iranian economy left for the US to sanction. The cyber war between the two countries also heated up but it was reported that President Trump is willing to negotiate with Iranian leaders with “no preconditions”. Tomorrow, investors will closely parse the comments from Fed Chair Powell who will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, following a more dovish-than-expected stance from the Fed last week.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in May came in above consensus of -0.20 at -0.05, following a downwardly revised prior of -0.48. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity in June plunged to -12.10 from -5.30 prior while consensus called for -2.00. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $36 billion of 3-month bills and $36 billion of 6-month bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.74 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  06/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 May -0.20 -0.05 -0.45 -0.48  
                   
  06/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jun -2.00 -12.10 -5.30 -  
                   
  06/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Apr 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Apr 0.10% - 0.09% -  
                   
  06/25 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Apr 2.50% - 2.68% -  
                   
  06/25 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jun 2.00 - 5.00 -  
                   
  06/26 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 21 Jun - - -3.40% -  
                   
  06/26 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 May P 0.50% - 0.80% -  
                   
  06/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 May P -0.20% - -2.10% -  
                   
  06/26 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 May P 0.10% - 0.00% -  
                   
  06/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q T 3.20% - 3.10% -  
                   
  06/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 1Q T 1.30% - 1.30% -  
                   
  06/27 GDP Price Index 05:30 1Q T 0.80% - 0.80% -  
                   
  06/27 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 1Q T 1.00% - 1.00% -  
                   
  06/27 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 22 Jun 218k - 216k -  
                   
  06/27 Continuing Claims 05:30 15 Jun 1668k - 1662k -  
                   
  06/27 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 23 Jun - - 61.80 -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 May 0.90% - -1.50% -  
                   
  06/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 May 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Income 05:30 May 0.30% - 0.50% -  
                   
  06/28 Personal Spending 05:30 May 0.50% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 May 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  06/28 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 May 1.50% - 1.60% -  
                   
  06/28 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jun F 98.00 - 97.90 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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